Abstract:
Namibia is considered to be one of the countries that are most vulnerable to climate
change due to its generally dry climate and the percentage of its population that rely on subsistence
agriculture for their livelihoods. Early-warning systems are an important aspect of adapting to
climate change. Weather forecasting relies on the use of numerical weather prediction models and
these need to be configured properly. In this study, we investigate the effects of using multi-nests
and a convection scheme on the simulation of a heavy rainfall event over the north-western region
of Kunene, Namibia. The event, which was associated with a cut-off low system, was short-lived
and resulted in over 45 mm of rainfall in one hour. For the multi-nest, a 9 km grid-length parent
domain is nested within the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations, which in turn forces a 3 km
grid spacing child domain. A different set of simulations are produced using a single nest of 3 km
grid spacing, nested directly inside the GFS data. The simulations are produced with the convection
scheme switched on and off. The impact of a single versus multi-nest is found to be small in general,
with slight differences in the location of high rainfall intensity. Switching off the convection schemes
results in high rainfall intensity and increased detail in the simulations, including when a grid
spacing of 9 km is used. Using a grid spacing of 3 km with the convection scheme on, results in
a loss of detail in the simulations as well as lower rainfall amounts. The study shows a need for
different configurations to be tested before an optimum configuration can be selected for operational
forecasting. We recommend further tests with different synoptic forcing and convection schemes to
be conducted to identify a suitable configuration for Namibia.
