Climate change impacts on water and agriculture sectors in southern Africa : threats and opportunities for sustainable development

Abstract

Agriculture remains important in driving economic transformation, sustainable livelihoods, and development in developing countries. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis and discussion of climate change impacts on water and agriculture sectors and implications for the attainment of developmental outcomes such as food security, poverty reduction, and sustainable development in Southern Africa. The review gives policy messages for coping, adapting, and building resilience of water and agricultural production systems in the face of projected changes in climate and variability. The aim is to guide the region towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Future projections for Southern Africa indicate reduced rainfall, increased temperatures, and high variability for the greater part of the region with severe reductions on the drier and marginal western parts. These impacts have profound implications for agriculture performance and contribution to national and regional developmental goals. The region is projected to experience reductions of between 15% and 50% in agricultural productivity, a scenario that would exacerbate food insecurity in the region. The challenge is to increase productivity on current arable land through e cient and sustainable management of available water and energy, and at the same time reducing pressure on the environment. A ordability and accessibility of innovative adaptation measures on water resources remain critical and these strategies should be part of broader sustainable development e orts. Overall, e orts to enhance agricultural productivity need to emphasise investments in sustainable management and use of water and energy resources in agriculture to achieve sustainable economic growth and livelihoods.