Integrated assessment of the influence of climate change on current and future intra-annual water availability in the Vaal River catchment

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dc.contributor.author Akanbi, R.T. (Remilekun)
dc.contributor.author Ndarana, Thando
dc.contributor.author Davis, Nerhene
dc.contributor.author Archer, Emma Rosa Mary
dc.date.accessioned 2021-02-09T09:18:11Z
dc.date.available 2021-02-09T09:18:11Z
dc.date.issued 2021
dc.description.abstract Increasing water demand due to population growth, economic expansion and the need for development puts a strain on the supply capacity of the Vaal River catchment in South Africa. Climate change presents additional challenges in the catchment which supports the country's economic hub, more than 30% of its population and over 70% of its maize production. This study evaluates the influence of climate change on current and future intra-annual water availability and demand using a multi-tiered approach where climate scenarios, hydrological modelling and socio-economic considerations were applied. Results shows exacerbated water supply challenges for the future. Temperature increases of between 0.07 and 5 °C and precipitation reductions ranging from 0.4 to 30% for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, are also predicted by the end of the century. The highest monthly average streamflow reductions (8–10%) are predicted for the summer months beyond 2040. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) simulations project an increase in future water requirements, gaps in future water assurance and highlight limitations in existing management strategies. The study recommends a combination of adaptation plans, climatic/non-climatic stressor monitoring, wastewater-reuse, conservation, demand management and inter-basin transfers to reduce future uncertainty in monthly water sustainability. en_ZA
dc.description.department Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology en_ZA
dc.description.librarian hj2021 en_ZA
dc.description.uri https://iwaponline.com/jwcc en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Akanbi, R.T., Ndarana, T., Davis, N. et al. 2021, 'Integrated assessment of the influence of climate change on current and future intra-annual water availability in the Vaal River catchment', Journal of Water and Climate Change, jwc2020269. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.269. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 2040-2244
dc.identifier.other 10.2166/wcc.2020.269
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/78323
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher IWA publishing en_ZA
dc.rights © IWA Publishing 2020 The definitive peer-reviewed and edited version of this article is published in Journal of Water and Climate Change, vol. , no. , pp. , 2020, doi : 10.2166/wcc.2020.269 is available at http://jwcc.iwaponline.com. en_ZA
dc.subject Climate change en_ZA
dc.subject Intra-annual water availability en_ZA
dc.subject South Africa (SA) en_ZA
dc.subject Vaal river basin en_ZA
dc.subject Water evaluation and planning (WEAP) en_ZA
dc.subject Representative concentration pathway (RCP) en_ZA
dc.title Integrated assessment of the influence of climate change on current and future intra-annual water availability in the Vaal River catchment en_ZA
dc.type Postprint Article en_ZA


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