Analysis of land use and land cover dynamics and its implications on natural resources in Dedza District Malawi

Abstract

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) attributed to anthropogenic activities are one of the fundamental drivers of environmental changes at the local, regional and global levels. These changes continue to threaten the capacity of the ecosystems to function and provide environmental goods and services and the ability to sustain the livelihoods of rural communities. Therefore, a critical understanding of LULC patterns and dynamics is crucial for predicting future LULC patterns and changes and formulation of appropriate policies, strategies and interventions for sustainable management of natural resources. Dedza district like any other district in Malawi has experienced rapid LULC changes over the past decades. However, knowledge about LULC changes that occur, where and when they occur and the rates at which they occur is not well documented. Equally important is the examination of the drivers and processes that cause these changes and the extent to which these LULC changes have impacted on natural resources and rural livelihoods in the studied area. As such, this remains a critical challenge that needs to be addressed in order to achieve sustainable natural resource management and community development. This study aimed to investigate the nature of LULC changes that have taken place between 1991 and 2015, drivers attributing to these changes and their impacts of these changes on the natural resources in Dedza district of Malawi. The study used a mixed-method approach consisting of remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis, model simulations, focus-group discussions, key informant interviews, and semi-structured interviews covering 586 households. An overall accuracy of the classification achieved for the classified images was 91.86%. GIS-based analysis of remotely sensed data revealed that the areas under agricultural land, forest area, wetlands, water bodies drastically decreased from 71.3% (267,977.43 ha), 24.53% (9,939.15 ha), 0.96% (3,626.73 ha), 0.37% (1,380.60 ha) in 1991 to 69.41% (260,879.31 ha), 1.66% (6,237.63 ha), 0.71% (2,680.29 ha) and 0.24% (899.55 ha) in 2015. On the contrary, barren land and built-up areas substantially increased from 24.53% (92,185.38 ha) and 0.20% (761.67 ha) in 1991 to 25.85% (97,174.62 ha), 2.13% (7,999.56 ha) in 2015 respectively. Significant differences were found among the interviewed households in perceptions regarding LULC changes taken place in the studied landscape and distance to different infrastructures such as main roads, health centres, schools, and towns (p < 0.001). The results of the household surveys indicated that the local communities were aware of the LULC dynamics and validated the observed changes. Firewood collection, charcoal production, population growth, and poverty were identified as the key drivers of observed LULC changes in the study area. Local communities perceived that LULC changes led to a decline in agricultural land (57.3%, n = 586), crop production (82.8%, n = 586) and forest cover (87.4%, n = 586) and an increase in the distance to forest resources (50.7%, n = 586). These changes exposed rural households to major shocks such as drought, floods, food shortage, loss/damage of crops and death of household members. In order to address these shocks, communities were engaged in short-term strategies such as piecework, receiving aid from government and NGOs, receiving unconditional aid from relatives, relying on their own savings and credits. The simulation results using the CA-Markov model showed that water bodies, barren land and built-up areas will increase while agricultural land, wetlands and forest land will substantially decrease by 2025 and 2035. The undesired LULC changes, patterns and impacts observed in this study, however, pose a big threat and risk to the sustainable management of natural resources and rural livelihoods survival. Hence, the need for urgent attention by the natural resource managers, planners, researchers and decision-makers. The results found in this study are deemed useful in guiding planners and decision-makers in the field of land management and policy development towards a more sustainable natural resource management strategy in Dedza district. Results found in this study could also inform decision-making in other districts of similar settings. Thus, results of the study are expected to support decision-makers and planners in the design and implementation of holistic, tenable and coherent and sustainable development policies/strategies/ guidelines for effective natural resource management.