A novel systems approach to energy poverty in sub-Saharan Africa : a South African informal settlement case study

Abstract

Mitigating energy poverty requires a multi-criteria decision protocol integrating socio-economic, cultural, environmental, and technical systems, influencing energy access, and consumption. Situations of energy poverty are typical in rural and urban poor households, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. These situations are commonly prevalent in informal settlements, sprawling across the periphery of South African metros. Majorities of informal households lack access to grid-electricity and consume local energy sources for their energy needs. There are ongoing government efforts directed to mitigating energy poverty among energy-poor households, such as informal households, through policies and subsidies. Socio-economic and cultural environments also redefine the extent to which energy poverty is mitigated in these households. At present, informal households are constantly and rapidly growing, and as a result, compromise policy effectiveness and other functional strategies, targeting to mitigating energy poverty in these households, and achieving universal energy access in South Africa. Accordingly, this research study adopted a multidisciplinary approach to understanding related matters of energy poverty based on energy policies; electricity access, and pricing; geospatial analysis; energy use and access; and management strategies, with emphasis on informal settlements in South Africa. The first part of the study reviewed energy pro-poor policies, relevant to improving energy access and energy-use efficiency in energy-poor households in South Africa. The study also investigated electricity access (access rates), connection costs (access costs), and electricity tariffs to understand historical precedents and forecast scenarios, and the relationships to gaining complete electricity access by 2030 in the City of Cape Town. The third part mapped and monitored informal areas to understand landscape processes and poverty with energy poverty propagations by Land Cover (LC) and Land-Cover Change (LCC) in the City of Cape Town. The fourth part of the research investigated energy-use patterns and other energy-related matters in a selected informal settlement - a typical case study of an energy-poor community in South Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. The last part proposed and designed a novel System Reinforcing Model (SRM), an Energy Access Sustainability (EAS) management scheme, applicable to mitigating energy poverty in any energy-poor community. The study review validated government efforts in improving energy access in energy-poor households through commissioned energy pro-poor policies but not without drawbacks and proposed recommendations to support future policy reforms. The research also revealed iv A novel systems approach to energy poverty in sub-Saharan Africa: A South African informal settlement as case study. increasing patterns in historical trends of access rates, costs, and tariffs, and relationships between parameters within the assessment period (from 2010 to 2018). The forecast analyses (from 2019 to 2030) demonstrated that total electricity access could not be reached by 2030 without a shift in Business-As-Usual (BAU) patterns in the City of Cape Town. The LC conversions of informal areas revealed poverty with energy poverty propagations through landscape degradation processes - Persistence and Intensification - in the City of Cape Town. The research study further revealed poor energy use patterns and behaviour in the target Settlement. Informal households in the settlement mainly adopted local energy fuels and appliances in satisfying household energy needs. The novel part of the research study described the application of a systems approach - Systems engineering (SE) and Systems Thinking (SsT) - into energy poverty and access processes to developing the new SRM. SE and SsT concept analyses were employed in identifying and integrating four operating system interfaces in these processes into the new SRM. The new SRM simulated complex systems and elements within the interfaces and categorized them as design decisions and system designs. These systems and elements were grounded in energy-use patterns and behaviour, energy access, and EAS, as well as socio-economic, cultural, technical, and environmental features. Arrays of feedback loops in reinforcing patterns in the new SRM modelled the interactions between, and within, design decisions and system designs, for future energy access rebranding, based on significant sustainability outcomes of favourably coalesced system interfaces. SRM was applied in the target settlement, where the model’s significance was validated. Based on its multi-criteria decision approach, among its many features, SRM revealed system parts instigating energy poverty situations and limiting EAS in the target settlement. SRM tailored energy access solutions, whilst integrating significant outcomes of the whole research study, to advancing energy poverty mitigation and EAS in the target settlement.