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dc.contributor.author | Enahoro, Iboi![]() |
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dc.contributor.author | Eikenberry, Steffen E.![]() |
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dc.contributor.author | Gumel, Abba B.![]() |
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dc.contributor.author | Huijben, Silvie![]() |
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dc.contributor.author | Paaijmans, Krijn![]() |
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dc.date.accessioned | 2020-09-01T13:12:26Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020-07 | |
dc.description.abstract | Recent dramatic declines in global malaria burden and mortality can be largely attributed to the large-scale deployment of insecticidal-based measures, namely long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying. However, the sustainability of these gains, and the feasibility of global malaria eradication by 2040, may be affected by increasing insecticide resistance among the Anopheles malaria vector. We employ a new differential-equations based mathematical model, which incorporates the full, weather-dependent mosquito lifecycle, to assess the population-level impact of the large-scale use of LLINs, under different levels of Anopheles pyrethroid insecticide resistance, on malaria transmission dynamics and control in a community. Moreover, we describe the bednet-mosquito interaction using parameters that can be estimated from the large experimental hut trial literature under varying levels of effective pyrethroid resistance. An expression for the basic reproduction number, R0, as a function of population-level bednet coverage, is derived. It is shown, owing to the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, that R0 must be pushed appreciably below 1 to eliminate malaria in endemic areas, potentially complicating eradication efforts. Numerical simulations of the model suggest that, when the baseline R0 is high (corresponding roughly to holoendemic malaria), very high bednet coverage with highly effective nets is necessary to approach conditions for malaria elimination. Further, while >50% bednet coverage is likely sufficient to strongly control or eliminate malaria from areas with a mesoendemic malaria baseline, pyrethroid resistance could undermine control and elimination efforts even in this setting. Our simulations show that pyrethroid resistance in mosquitoes appreciably reduces bednet effectiveness across parameter space. This modeling study also suggests that increasing pre-bloodmeal deterrence of mosquitoes (deterring them from entry into protected homes) actually hampers elimination efforts, as it may focus mosquito biting onto a smaller unprotected host subpopulation. Finally, we observe that temperature affects malaria potential independently of bednet coverage and pyrethroid-resistance levels, with both climate change and pyrethroid resistance posing future threats to malaria control. | en_ZA |
dc.description.department | Mathematics and Applied Mathematics | en_ZA |
dc.description.embargo | 2021-05-23 | |
dc.description.librarian | hj2020 | en_ZA |
dc.description.sponsorship | National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS) is an Institute sponsored by the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture through NSF Award #EF-0832858, with additional support from The University of Tennessee, Knoxville. ABG also acknowledges the support, in part, of the Simons Foundation (Award #585022). | en_ZA |
dc.description.uri | http://link.springer.com/journal/285 | en_ZA |
dc.identifier.citation | Enahoro, I., Eikenberry, S., Gumel, A.B. et al. Long-lasting insecticidal nets and the quest for malaria eradication: a mathematical modeling approach. Journal of Mathematical Biology 81, 113–158 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-020-01503-z. | en_ZA |
dc.identifier.issn | 0303-6812 (print) | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1432-1416 (online) | |
dc.identifier.other | 10.1007/s00285-020-01503-z | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/76023 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_ZA |
dc.publisher | Springer | en_ZA |
dc.rights | © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2020. The original publication is available at : http://link.springer.com/journal/285. | en_ZA |
dc.subject | Long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) | en_ZA |
dc.subject | Pyrethroid | en_ZA |
dc.subject | Basic reproduction number | en_ZA |
dc.subject | Temperature effects | en_ZA |
dc.title | Long-lasting insecticidal nets and the quest for malaria eradication : a mathematical modeling approach | en_ZA |
dc.type | Postprint Article | en_ZA |