Abstract:
The estimation of travel demand for complex passenger transport infrastructure projects such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, is fraught with multiple challenges that include the reliability of demand forecasts. The choice of variables used to estimate the demand is often informed by historical perspectives and not a genuine understanding of the said variables. The paper explores the use of Correspondence Analysis (CA) as an alternative method to facilitate the understanding the relationship between demand and supply side variables prior to the application of more intense mode choice modelling techniques. The raw data from the 2014 Gauteng household travel survey was used to develop the required models in areas where BRT services were operational in order to characterise the BRT users, followed by probability estimation of the actual demand. It is shown that CA can be reliably used as a resource efficient alternative for the initial characterisation of travel demand where household travel survey data exist. This is especially useful for planning authorities that do not have large transport planning budgets and human resources to acquire and employ extensive land use-transport interaction models.
Description:
Papers presented at the 38th International Southern African Transport Conference on "Disruptive transport technologies - is South and Southern Africa ready?" held at CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa on 8th to 11th July 2019.
