Some aspects of the use and usefulness of quantitative risk analysis tools in project management

Abstract

Central to project management is risk management — and the need to develop better and more specific tools to manage risk. This is driven by the desire to reduce uncertainty and risk on projects. Quantitative tools such as Monte Carlo simulation are sometimes used to analyse risk, but it is not clear how widespread, accepted, or useful such tools are for practising project personnel. This research was undertaken to gain feedback from practising project and risk management personnel about the use of risk management tools. Special attention was given to the levels of use of quantitative risk management tools and the benefits gained from their use. A conceptual framework was created linking the factors that affect tool use to the actual tool use levels, and ultimately to project performance. Research questions reported on in this paper addressed levels of tool use, factors that affect tool usage, and the benefit aspect of tool use on project performance. Data were gathered via an on-line questionnaire that was statistically analysed, and a number of hypotheses were tested. The results of this study show that the levels of use of both qualitative and quantitative risk management tools are low compared with general project management tools. Correlations were found between a number of factors that affect tool use.

Sentraal tot projekbestuur is risikobestuur — en die behoefte om beter en meer spesifieke metodes te ontwikkel om risiko beter te bestuur. Dit word gedryf deur onsekerheid en risiko op projekte te verminder. Kwantitatiewe tegnieke, word soms gebruik om risiko te analiseer, maar dit is nie duidelik hoe wydverspreid, aanvaar, en nuttig sulke tegnieke is vir die beoefening deur projekpersoneel nie. Hierdie studie is onderneem om terugvoer te verkry van praktiserende projek- en risikobestuurspersoneel ten opsigte van die gebruik van risikobestuursmetodes. Spesiale aandag is gegee aan die benuttingsvlakke van kwantitatiewe risikobestuursmetodes en die voordeel daarvan. ’n Konseptuele raamwerk is geskep wat faktore wat die gebruik van hulpmiddels skakel met die werklike vlakke vir die gebruik van instrumente, en uiteindelik skakel met projekprestasie. Navorsingsvrae waaroor in hierdie artikel verslag gelewer word, het betrekking op die gebruiksvlakke van instrumente en metodes, faktore wat die gebruik van instrumente en metodes beïnvloed, en die voordele-aspek van die gebruik van instrumente en metodes op projekprestasie beïnvloed. Data is ingesamel via ’n aanlyn vraelys, statisties ontleed, en ’n aantal hipoteses is getoets. Die resultate van hierdie studie toon dat die benutting vlakke van beide kwalitatiewe en kwantitatiewe risikobestuurinstrumente en metodes laag is in vergelyking met algemene projekbestuursinstrumente.