Predicting the distribution of the vulnerable yellow-breasted pipit (Anthus chloris) using species distribution modelling

Abstract

The Yellow-breasted Pipit (Anthus chloris) is endemic to the eastern escarpment of South Africa, marginally entering eastern Lesotho. This species is classified as globally Vulnerable due to a perceived decreasing population size and loss of habitat. We employed Species Distribution Modelling to investigate the predicted range of this species to determine whether additional purportedly suitable habitat exists where this species may be found, and to assess the degree to which habitat loss has affected this species. We used a database of 250 independently obtained and verified sightings to predict the summer breeding distribution of this species and compare our verified sightings and predicted range to the sightings currently in the Second Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP2) database and the latest regional conservation assessment. Our models closely approximate the current distribution of the Yellow-breasted Pipit, and suggest that most of the purportedly suitable habitat is occupied, at least at the macro scale. Our models further suggest that the Eastern Cape Province does not hold much suitable habitat for this species, and that the purported range contraction in this region may have been overestimated.