Stochastic model for common cause failures and human error

Loading...
Thumbnail Image

Authors

Yadavalli, Venkata S. Sarma
Bekker, Andriette, 1958-

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Southern African Institute for Industrial Engineering

Abstract

A consistent asymptotic normal (CAN) estimator and confidence limits for the steady-state availability of series and parallel systems subject to unit failures, common-cause shock (CCS)failures and human error are studied. This paper also deals with the estimation from a Bayesian viewpoint with a number of prior distributions assumed for the unknown parameters in the system, which reflect different degrees of belief on the failure mechanisms. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to derive the posterior distribution for the steady-state availability and subsequently the highest posterior density (HPD) intervals. A numerical example illustrates the results.
'n Konsekwente asimptotiese normaalberamer en vertroueintervalle vir die ewewigstoestandsbeskikbaarheid van stelsels in serie en parallel, wat onderworpe is aan eenheids-, gemeenskaplike skok- en menslike foutfalings, word bestudeer. In die artikel word ook 'n Bayes-benadering gevolg vir die beraming deur 'n aantal a priori-verdelings vir die onbekende parameters in die stelsel, wat verskillende grade van vertroue in die falingsmeganismes weerspieël, te aanvaar. Monte Carlo-simulasie word gebruik om die a posteriori-verdeling vir die ewewigstoestandsbeskikbaarheid en daarna die hoogste a posteriori-digtheidsintervalle (HPD) af te lei. 'n Numeriese voorbeeld illustreer die resultate.

Description

Keywords

Consistent asymptotic normal (CAN), Steady-state availability, Common-cause shock (CCS), Parallel systems, Bayesian, Monte Carlo Simulation, Highest posterior density (HPD)

Sustainable Development Goals

Citation

Yadavalli, VSS, & Bekker, A 2005,'Stochastic model for common cause failures and human error', South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 41-53. [http://www.journals.co.za/ej/ejour_indeng.html]