Stochastic model for common cause failures and human error

Show simple item record Yadavalli, Venkata S. Sarma Bekker, Andriette, 1958- 2008-09-02T07:35:11Z 2008-09-02T07:35:11Z 2005-05
dc.description.abstract A consistent asymptotic normal (CAN) estimator and confidence limits for the steady-state availability of series and parallel systems subject to unit failures, common-cause shock (CCS)failures and human error are studied. This paper also deals with the estimation from a Bayesian viewpoint with a number of prior distributions assumed for the unknown parameters in the system, which reflect different degrees of belief on the failure mechanisms. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to derive the posterior distribution for the steady-state availability and subsequently the highest posterior density (HPD) intervals. A numerical example illustrates the results. en
dc.description.abstract 'n Konsekwente asimptotiese normaalberamer en vertroueintervalle vir die ewewigstoestandsbeskikbaarheid van stelsels in serie en parallel, wat onderworpe is aan eenheids-, gemeenskaplike skok- en menslike foutfalings, word bestudeer. In die artikel word ook 'n Bayes-benadering gevolg vir die beraming deur 'n aantal a priori-verdelings vir die onbekende parameters in die stelsel, wat verskillende grade van vertroue in die falingsmeganismes weerspieël, te aanvaar. Monte Carlo-simulasie word gebruik om die a posteriori-verdeling vir die ewewigstoestandsbeskikbaarheid en daarna die hoogste a posteriori-digtheidsintervalle (HPD) af te lei. 'n Numeriese voorbeeld illustreer die resultate.
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dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.identifier.citation Yadavalli, VSS, & Bekker, A 2005,'Stochastic model for common cause failures and human error', South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 41-53. [] en
dc.identifier.issn 1012-277X
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Southern African Institute for Industrial Engineering en
dc.rights Southern African Institute for Industrial Engineering en
dc.subject Consistent asymptotic normal (CAN) en
dc.subject Steady-state availability en
dc.subject Common-cause shock (CCS) en
dc.subject Parallel systems en
dc.subject Bayesian en
dc.subject Monte Carlo Simulation en
dc.subject Highest posterior density (HPD) en
dc.subject.lcsh System failures (Engineering)
dc.subject.lcsh Nuclear power plants -- Risk assessment -- South Africa
dc.subject.lcsh Reliability (Engineering) -- Statistical methods
dc.title Stochastic model for common cause failures and human error en
dc.type Article en

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