Seasonal forecasts for the Limpopo Province in estimating deviations from grazing capacity

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dc.contributor.author Maluleke, Phumzile
dc.contributor.author Landman, W.A. (Willem Adolf), 1964-
dc.contributor.author Malherbe, Johan
dc.contributor.author Archer, Emma
dc.date.accessioned 2018-12-12T09:18:09Z
dc.date.issued 2019-11
dc.description.abstract Application of seasonal forecasts in agriculture has significant potential and realized utility. Other sectors that may also benefit from using seasonal forecasts include (but are not limited to) health, hydrology, water, and energy. This paper shows that seasonal forecast model data, satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT), dry matter productivity (DMP) data (proxy of grass biomass) along with other sets of data are effectively used to estimate grazing capacity (GC) over a 12-year test period (1998/1999–2009/2010) in Limpopo Province. GC comprises a vital consideration in agricultural activities, particularly for a province in South Africa like Limpopo, due to its varying climate. The Limpopo Province capitalizes on subsistence farming, including livestock and crop production. Grazing should thus be regulated in order to conserve grass, shrubs, and trees, thereby ensuring sustainability of rangelands. In a statistical downscaling model, the predictor is the 850 geopotential height fields of a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation (CGCM) over Southern Africa to predict seasonal DMP values. This model shows that the mid-summer rainfall totals are important predictors for the November through April (NDJFMA) DMP (as well as grazing capacity) growing season. Forecast verification is conducted using the relative operating characteristics (ROC) and reliability diagrams. The CGCM model shows skill in discriminating high and low DMP (GC) seasons in the Limpopo Province, as well as reliability in the probabilistic forecasts. This paper demonstrates the development of a tailored forecast, an avenue that should be explored in enhancing relevance of forecasts in agricultural production. en_ZA
dc.description.department Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology en_ZA
dc.description.embargo 2020-11-10
dc.description.librarian hj2018 en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorship The Agricultural Research Council en_ZA
dc.description.uri http://link.springer.com/journal/704 en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Maluleke, P., Landman, W.A., Malherbe, J. et al. Seasonal forecasts for the Limpopo Province in estimating deviations from grazing capacity. Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2696-x. NYP. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 0177-798X (print)
dc.identifier.issn 1434-4483 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1007/s00704-018-2696-x
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/68092
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Springer en_ZA
dc.rights © Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2018. The original publication is available at : http://link.springer.comjournal/704. en_ZA
dc.subject Seasonal forecasts en_ZA
dc.subject Limpopo Province, South Africa en_ZA
dc.subject Deviations en_ZA
dc.subject Coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation (CGCM) en_ZA
dc.subject Dry matter productivity (DMP) en_ZA
dc.subject Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT) en_ZA
dc.subject Grazing capacity (GC) en_ZA
dc.subject Relative operating characteristics (ROC) en_ZA
dc.title Seasonal forecasts for the Limpopo Province in estimating deviations from grazing capacity en_ZA
dc.type Postprint Article en_ZA


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