Lake Sibayi variations in response to climate variability in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

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dc.contributor.author Nsubuga, Francis Wasswa Nkugwa
dc.contributor.author Mearns, Kevin F.
dc.contributor.author Adeola, Abiodun Morakinyo
dc.date.accessioned 2018-11-30T05:19:48Z
dc.date.issued 2019-07
dc.description.abstract The optimal management of natural resources like lakes requires understanding the relationship with other environmental elements. Remote sensing techniques using multi-temporal and multi-sensor images for change detection purposes are important in this regard. This study used a combination of approaches to detect changes in the lake surface area of Lake Sibayi in relation to changes in past climates. Delineation of the study area is achieved using WR2012 endoreic maps and Landsat satellite images from 1992 to 2016. Using data from eight meteorological stations, past climate of the lake catchment was investigated. Thereafter, a multivariate correlation analysis is conducted to examine the relationship between the changes in the lake surface area and the changes in climatic (precipitation, temperature) variables and water levels. Results suggest that the lake surface area has decreased by 20% since 1992. There are significant changes in temperatures, while the annual rainfall totals declined significantly. The correlation between precipitation in the catchment and annual water level changes is 0.88. Statistically, significant increases in the water level and precipitation were experienced in 1993 and 2001. SPI analysis reveals that the study area is getting drier and the probability of recurrence of moderate dryness is 10%. The rate at which the lake is shrinking is not solely climatic related, as anthropogenic aspects are also responsible. To prevent further shrinkage of Lake Sibayi, it will be necessary to develop aggressive restoration policies and action plans aimed at maintaining inflows in the face of compounding climate change and water demand. Recommendations of the nature of further studies that can increase our understanding are included. en_ZA
dc.description.department Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology en_ZA
dc.description.department School of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH) en_ZA
dc.description.embargo 2019-10-17
dc.description.librarian hj2018 en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorship The South African Weather Services (Durban, RSA), the Department of Water and Sanitation, and USGS for data provision. en_ZA
dc.description.uri http://link.springer.com/journal/704 en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Nsubuga, F.N.W., Mearns, K.F. & Adeola, A.M. Lake Sibayi variations in response to climate variability in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 137, 1233–1245 (2019) doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2640-0. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 0177-798X (print)
dc.identifier.issn 1434-4483 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1007/s00704-018-2640-0
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/67416
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Springer en_ZA
dc.rights © Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2018. The original publication is available at : http://link.springer.comjournal/704. en_ZA
dc.subject Climate variability en_ZA
dc.subject Northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa en_ZA
dc.subject Lake Sibayi en_ZA
dc.subject Past climate en_ZA
dc.subject Lake catchment en_ZA
dc.subject Lake surface area variations en_ZA
dc.subject Climate change en_ZA
dc.subject Change detection en_ZA
dc.subject Standardised precipitation index (SPI) en_ZA
dc.subject Precipitation concentration index (PCI) en_ZA
dc.title Lake Sibayi variations in response to climate variability in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa en_ZA
dc.type Postprint Article en_ZA


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