Modeling the temporal evolution of cocoa black pod rot disease caused by Phytophthora megakarya

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dc.contributor.author Nembot, Christian
dc.contributor.author Takam Soh, Patrice
dc.contributor.author Ten Hoopen, Gerben Martijn
dc.contributor.author Dumont, Yves
dc.date.accessioned 2018-10-29T11:22:07Z
dc.date.issued 2018-12
dc.description.abstract Black pod rot, caused by Phytophthora megakarya, is the main cause of cocoa losses in Cameroon. A few studies have focused on describing black pod epidemics in cocoa yet numerous questions remain. Here, an epidemiological model describing the temporal evolution of cocoa black pod, taking into account the development stages of pods, is developed and studied. In particular, the relative importance of primary and secondary infection in disease dynamics is investigated. Our theoretical study shows the existence of a disease free equilibrium and at least one endemic equilibrium. We highlight two threshold parameters, related to direct and indirect infections that summarize all possible dynamics of the system. Then, based on the literature, we define a periodic pod recruitment function and provide several numerical simulations to study the impact of phytosanitary pod removal on disease dynamics. We show that intense and regular sanitary harvest could lead to complete disease eradication. Our results also highlight the importance of the environmental spores reservoir in disease dynamics, such that future field experiments and observations should focus on it. en_ZA
dc.description.department Mathematics and Applied Mathematics en_ZA
dc.description.embargo 2019-12-01
dc.description.librarian hj2018 en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorship The first author is grateful to the DP Agroforesterie Cameroon, the French Government, and the French Embassy in Yaoundé (SCAC), Cameroon for logistical and financial support during the preparation of this manuscript and also to the CETIC Yaoundé and the CIRAD (UMR AMAP, Montpellier, France). . en_ZA
dc.description.uri http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/mma en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Nembot C, Takam Soh P, ten Hoopen GM, Dumont Y. Modeling the temporal evolution of cocoa black pod rot disease caused by Phytophthora megakarya. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences. 2018;41:8816–884. https://doi.org/10.1002/mma.5206. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 0170-4214 (print)
dc.identifier.issn 1099-1476 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1002/mma.5206
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/67094
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Wiley en_ZA
dc.rights © 2018 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd. This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article : Modeling the temporal evolution of cocoa black pod rot disease caused by Phytophthora megakarya. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 2018;41:8816–884, doi : 10.1002/mma.5206. The definite version is available at : http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/mma. en_ZA
dc.subject Analysis en_ZA
dc.subject Black pod rot en_ZA
dc.subject Cocoa en_ZA
dc.subject Epidemiological model en_ZA
dc.subject Simulation en_ZA
dc.subject Diseases en_ZA
dc.subject Dynamics en_ZA
dc.subject Epidemiology en_ZA
dc.subject Disease-free equilibrium en_ZA
dc.subject Endemic equilibrium en_ZA
dc.subject Temporal evolution en_ZA
dc.subject Threshold parameters en_ZA
dc.title Modeling the temporal evolution of cocoa black pod rot disease caused by Phytophthora megakarya en_ZA
dc.type Postprint Article en_ZA


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