Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia : identification of priority areas for intervention

Show simple item record Duque-Lazo, Joaquín Navarro-Cerrillo, Rafael María Van Gils, Hein Groen, Thomas A. 2018-05-28T12:45:41Z 2018-05
dc.description.abstract Since the mid-20th century, trees in the Andalusian oak dehesa and forests have exhibited stress that often ends in the death of the tree. These events have been associated with Phytophthora cinnamomi, a soil-borne root pathogen, which causes root rot, bark cankers, decay and mortality – known as oak decline. Phytophthora cinnamomi is most virulent under high ambient temperatures combined with moist soils, i.e., in Mediterranean areas. We used presence/absence point locations of the Andalusian Network for Damage Monitoring in Forest Ecosystems (RED SEDA) pathogen survey and four categories of environmental variables – meteorological, edaphic, topographic and tree cover – to accurately predict Phytophthora cinnamomi current and future potential distribution within Andalusia, for a range of climate change scenarios, using ensemble species distribution models (SDMs). We assessed which categories of environmental variables explained the distribution of the pathogen, obtained accurate predictions for the current potential distribution of Phytophthora cinnamomi (AUC > 0.95, TSS > 0.70, Kappa > 0.65) and forecasted its future potential distribution. Subsequently, we classified the sites of the pathogen survey within the RED SEDA network in three zones according to the already-recorded presence of the pathogen and the current and future predicted probability of occurrence. Finally, we suggested phytosanitary management strategies for each zone. en_ZA
dc.description.department Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology en_ZA
dc.description.embargo 2019-05-15
dc.description.librarian hj2018 en_ZA
dc.description.uri en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Duque-Lazo, J., Navarro-Cerrillo, R.M., Van Gils, H. & Groen, T.A. 2018, 'Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia : identification of priority areas for intervention', Forest Ecology and Management, vol. 417, pp. 122-136. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 0378-1127 (print)
dc.identifier.issn 1872-7042 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1016/j.foreco.2018.02.045
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Elsevier en_ZA
dc.rights © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Forest Ecology and Management. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. A definitive version was subsequently published in Forest Ecology and Management, vol. 417, pp. 122-136, 2018. doi : 10.1016/j.foreco.2018.02.045. en_ZA
dc.subject Phytophthora cinnamomi en_ZA
dc.subject Oak decline en_ZA
dc.subject Woodlands en_ZA
dc.subject Mediterranean oak en_ZA
dc.subject Ensemble species distribution modelling en_ZA
dc.subject Biomod2 en_ZA
dc.subject Death of the tree en_ZA
dc.subject Disease en_ZA
dc.subject Conservation en_ZA
dc.subject Forest en_ZA
dc.subject Southwestern Spain en_ZA
dc.subject Quercus ilex en_ZA
dc.subject Climate change en_ZA
dc.title Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia : identification of priority areas for intervention en_ZA
dc.type Postprint Article en_ZA

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