Towards bridging the gap between climate change projections and maize producers in South Africa

Show simple item record Landman, W.A. (Willem Adolf), 1964- Engelbrecht, Francois Hewitson, Bruce Malherbe, Johan B. Van der Merwe, Jacobus 2018-05-24T13:31:43Z 2018-05
dc.description.abstract Multi-decadal regional projections of future climate change are introduced into a linear statistical model in order to produce an ensemble of austral mid-summer maximum temperature simulations for southern Africa. The statistical model uses atmospheric thickness fields from a high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) reanalysis-forced simulation as predictors in order to develop a linear recalibration model which represents the relationship between atmospheric thickness fields and gridded maximum temperatures across the region. The regional climate model, the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), projects maximum temperatures increases over southern Africa to be in the order of 4 °C under low mitigation towards the end of the century or even higher. The statistical recalibration model is able to replicate these increasing temperatures, and the atmospheric thickness–maximum temperature relationship is shown to be stable under future climate conditions. Since dry land crop yields are not explicitly simulated by climate models but are sensitive to maximum temperature extremes, the effect of projected maximum temperature change on dry land crops of the Witbank maize production district of South Africa, assuming other factors remain unchanged, is then assessed by employing a statistical approach similar to the one used for maximum temperature projections. en_ZA
dc.description.department Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology en_ZA
dc.description.embargo 2019-05-01
dc.description.librarian hj2018 en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorship The National Research Foundation of South Africa and by the Applied Centre for Climate and Earth System Science. en_ZA
dc.description.uri en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Landman, W.A., Engelbrecht, F., Hewitson, B. et al. Towards bridging the gap between climate change projections and maize producers in South Africa. Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2018) 132: 1153-1163. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 0177-798X (print)
dc.identifier.issn 1434-4483 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1007/s00704-017-2168-8
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Springer en_ZA
dc.rights © Springer-Verlag Wien 2017. The original publication is available at : http://link.springer.comjournal/704. en_ZA
dc.subject Conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) en_ZA
dc.subject Skill en_ZA
dc.subject Frequency en_ZA
dc.subject Forecasting en_ZA
dc.subject Atmospheric thickness fields en_ZA
dc.subject Gridded maximum temperatures en_ZA
dc.subject Climate change projections en_ZA
dc.title Towards bridging the gap between climate change projections and maize producers in South Africa en_ZA
dc.type Postprint Article en_ZA

Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record