System-level causal modelling of widescale resource plundering : acting on the rhino poaching catastrophe

Show simple item record Koen, Hildegarde Roodt, Henk De Villiers, Johan Pieter 2017-11-15T08:45:17Z 2017-10
dc.description.abstract The initial goal of this study was to develop a predictive model that could serve as a pre-emptive method for curbing rhino poaching. During the development of the predictive model it became evident that only the tip of the iceberg, so to speak, has been uncovered. The rhino poaching problem is even more complex than was initially thought and this paper serves as a reflective piece on how the research methodology for the complex and poorly understood rhino poaching problem was shifted towards developing a common understanding of major drivers and interactions, to allow for pre-emptive action on a variety of fronts. The global drivers dictating the rhino horn supply chain such as human trafficking and other socio-economic factors cannot easily be captured in a model of causal certainties. This is in spite of the fact that the motivation of the individual poachers may reduce to greed or the need to provide for their families. Although the authors initially thought that it would be possible to model these causalities it became clear that the system is highly reflexive and adaptive. The system has feedback and recursive causal internals that self-regulate by changing in response to the environment. As interventions are introduced, the system will try to respond to mitigate the effects or impact of the change which makes predictive causal modelling very challenging. The paper reflects on this understanding derived from the development of a methodology that combines different versions of a causal Bayesian Network model with a systems framework drawn from an integral ecology perspective. en_ZA
dc.description.department Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engineering en_ZA
dc.description.embargo 2019-10-30
dc.description.librarian hj2017 en_ZA
dc.description.uri en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Koen, H., Roodt, H. & De Villiers, J.P. 2017, 'System-level causal modelling of widescale resource plundering : acting on the rhino poaching catastrophe', Futures, vol. 93, pp. 102-114. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 0016-3287 (print)
dc.identifier.issn 1873-6378 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1016/j.futures.2017.05.006
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Elsevier en_ZA
dc.rights © 2017 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Futures. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. A definitive version was subsequently published in Futures, vol. 93, pp. 102-114, 2017. doi : 10.1016/j.futures.2017.05.006. en_ZA
dc.subject Transdisciplinary approach en_ZA
dc.subject Rhino poaching en_ZA
dc.subject Systems engineering en_ZA
dc.subject Crime en_ZA
dc.title System-level causal modelling of widescale resource plundering : acting on the rhino poaching catastrophe en_ZA
dc.type Postprint Article en_ZA

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