Daily sales forecasting in foodservice : developing a model for application in an expert system

Abstract

The process of forecasting is one that has been applied by many and has evolved significantly over the past several decades. In the foodservice industry, effective and profitable operation relies heavily on accurate and reliable sales forecasts. This project was conducted with the aim of determining if it is possible to develop a forecasting tool consisting of a model or selection of models capable of forecasting daily sales for different restaurants with similar operating environments which can subsequently be developed into an Expert System. This Expert System should replicate the expertise, comprehension, intuition, and intelligence of the forecast knowledge expert in the process of forecasting daily sales in the foodservice industry and can then be used by individuals who has limited or no experience/understanding of the process of forecasting. This document includes a background on the company for which the model will be developed. It also highlights the problem that were addressed by this project as well as the approach and scope that will were followed towards finding a solution to this problem. A literature review explaining the methodology and application of potential methods that were considered in the selection and development of the final model(s) are included. Data analysis were carried out on the data that were acquired and similarities and observations documented. Finally the appropriate methods were tested and evaluated against one another. The results obtained from this project indicated that it is indeed possible to develop a forecasting tool capable of forecasting daily sales for different restaurants with similar operating environments. It was also determined that an Expert System can be developed based on the results obtained. The methodology that the Expert System will follow in producing forecasts are also included in this document.