This paper investigates the different influence factors for passenger train use. These factors have been clustered into 3 groups: 1. Socio-economic aspects: population and economic growth; 2. Internal train system aspects: fare price, travel time, comfort service levels, and capacity constraints; and 3. Other transport systems’ aspects: fuel price, toll price and parking costs, congestion, and other public and private transport’s service levels. The response to these influence factors are different for the different travel purposes: work / education (peak trips), and social / leisure (mainly off-peak trips). The response also differs based on the type of train users: Choice Users (i.e. the Gautrain market), and Captives (i.e. the Metrorail market), although both systems will eventually attract other markets as well, e.g. via the PRASA Modernisation process. The socio-economic aspects (population and economic growth) have a positive relationship with the demand of passenger train use. The analyses on the transport systems have considered the financial, time and effort budgets that a passenger has available, to make a decision on the use of Public Transport (PT) and train. It was found that Choice Users are more receptive to time and comfort aspects, while Captives lay relatively more value in cost aspects. However, due to a lack of alternative transport modes, the Captives’ response to changes is fairly inelastic.
Papers presented at the 36th Southern African Transport Conference, CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa on 10-13 July 2017.