Understanding the evolution of the 2014–2016 summer rainfall seasons in southern Africa : key lessons

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dc.contributor.author Archer, Emma Rosa Mary
dc.contributor.author Landman, W.A. (Willem Adolf), 1964-
dc.contributor.author Tadross, Mark Alexander
dc.contributor.author Malherbe, Johan
dc.contributor.author Weepener, Harold
dc.contributor.author Maluleke, Phumzile
dc.contributor.author Marumbwa, Farai Maxwell
dc.date.accessioned 2017-08-18T07:24:13Z
dc.date.available 2017-08-18T07:24:13Z
dc.date.issued 2017-04
dc.description.abstract The recent 2015/16 summer rainfall season in the terrestrial Southern African Development Community (SADC) region appears to be the most severe since the droughts of the early 1980s and 1990s; with well-publicized significant impacts on agriculture and food security. Impacts have been particularly concerning since the 2015/6 season followed a poor rainy season in 2014/15, in certain areas compounding already compromised production (total maize production was, for example, down 40% relative to the previous 5 year average). This paper reviews climate forecasts and observations of the two seasons, and presents examples of the resulting impacts on agriculture within the region. We conclude by considering what may be learnt from this experience, focussing on operational recommendations for early warning within SADC, as well as longstanding needs for awareness raising and capacity building. en_ZA
dc.description.department Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology en_ZA
dc.description.librarian am2017 en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorship The authors would like to thank the SASSCAL programme, who supported elements of the work and analysis presented here (SASSCAL project 203), as well as Michael Bell of the IRI, and the UMFULA programme (Emma Archer is partly supported by UK NERC Grant Ref: NE/M020398/1) under Future Climate for Africa (www.futureclimateafrica.org en_ZA
dc.description.uri http://www.elsevier.com/locate/crm en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Archer E.R.M., Landman, W.A., Tadross M.A., Malherbe J., Weepener H., Maluleke P. & Marumbwa F.M. 2017, 'Understanding the evolution of the 2014–2016 summer rainfall seasons in southern Africa : key lessons', Climate Risk Management, vol. 16, pp. 22-28. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 2212-0963 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1016/j.crm.2017.03.006
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/61719
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Elsevier en_ZA
dc.rights © 2017 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license. en_ZA
dc.subject Drought en_ZA
dc.subject Southern Africa en_ZA
dc.subject Agriculture en_ZA
dc.subject Early warning en_ZA
dc.subject Southern African Development Community (SADC) en_ZA
dc.title Understanding the evolution of the 2014–2016 summer rainfall seasons in southern Africa : key lessons en_ZA
dc.type Article en_ZA


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