Understanding the evolution of the 2014–2016 summer rainfall seasons in southern Africa : key lessons
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Date
Authors
Archer, Emma Rosa Mary
Landman, Willem Adolf
Tadross, Mark Alexander
Malherbe, Johan
Weepener, Harold
Maluleke, Phumzile
Marumbwa, Farai Maxwell
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
The recent 2015/16 summer rainfall season in the terrestrial Southern African
Development Community (SADC) region appears to be the most severe since the droughts
of the early 1980s and 1990s; with well-publicized significant impacts on agriculture and
food security. Impacts have been particularly concerning since the 2015/6 season followed
a poor rainy season in 2014/15, in certain areas compounding already compromised production
(total maize production was, for example, down 40% relative to the previous 5 year
average). This paper reviews climate forecasts and observations of the two seasons, and
presents examples of the resulting impacts on agriculture within the region. We conclude
by considering what may be learnt from this experience, focussing on operational recommendations
for early warning within SADC, as well as longstanding needs for awareness
raising and capacity building.
Description
Keywords
Drought, Southern Africa, Agriculture, Early warning, Southern African Development Community (SADC)
Sustainable Development Goals
Citation
Archer E.R.M., Landman, W.A., Tadross M.A., Malherbe J., Weepener H., Maluleke P. & Marumbwa F.M. 2017, 'Understanding the evolution of the 2014–2016 summer rainfall seasons in southern Africa : key lessons', Climate Risk Management, vol. 16, pp. 22-28.