Koeberg nuclear emergency plan: traffic evacuation model

Abstract

Paper presented at the 26th Annual Southern African Transport Conference 9 - 12 July 2007 "The challenges of implementing policy?", CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa. ABSTRACT:In terms of recent legislation regarding developments surrounding a nuclear installation, municipal and provincial authorities must perform assessments which demonstrate the adequacy of present and future disaster management infrastructure to ensure the effective implementation of any nuclear emergency plan. While the City of Cape Town already has documented emergency procedures, a critical element is an appropriate traffic model for testing / estimating evacuation times for different incident, population, infrastructure and traffic management scenarios. HHO Africa were recently appointed to formulate a Traffic Evacuation Model for the City of Cape Town for the area surrounding Koeberg Nuclear Power Station for the existing and future population. The study focused on testing the evacuation of the potentially at-risk population following an incident at Koeberg, and the traffic management actions required to do so. A key component of the study was the use of a strategic traffic model to estimate evacuation times for the 5 km zone around Koeberg, and for the critical 67.5o sectors within the 16 km zone. A literature survey of emergency evacuation events, including those related to the recent natural disasters in the USA, was also undertaken to understand critical factors impacting on evacuation procedures and times. This paper provides an overview of the findings of the study.