System dynamics as a tool for exploring greenhouse gas emission mitigation potential in freight transport

Abstract

In this study, system dynamics modelling is used to evaluate the impacts of decisions made by different decision makers in the freight subsector on the performance of the sector, as measured in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, direct job creation, water usage and various externality costs. The focus is on gaining a deeper understanding of opportunities for reducing GHGs, and particularly on the shift of freight from road to rail. Transport of processed food along the Cape Town-Gauteng corridor is used as a case study. Decision makers considered include the freight owners and those responsible for decisions around the vehicle fleet. In the model, decision makers respond to a number of aspects of system performance, including cost, system reliability and taxes. These aspects inform their decision to shift freight on or off rail, or to invest in efficiency interventions. Decisions made in one year impact on overall system performance, which may change a decision maker?s actions in the following year. This paper describes in detail the structure of the model and how it functions. It also discusses the necessary input data, and how this was gathered. Finally, simulation results are presented and discussed.