The economics of spatial reallocation of maize production in South Africa

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dc.contributor.advisor Meyer, Ferdinand en
dc.contributor.coadvisor Pardey, Philip G. en
dc.contributor.postgraduate Van der Burgh, Gerhard en
dc.date.accessioned 2016-10-14T07:31:14Z
dc.date.available 2016-10-14T07:31:14Z
dc.date.created 2016/09/02 en
dc.date.issued 2016 en
dc.description Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2016. en
dc.description.abstract The economics of production and market fundamentals, which drive the competition for arable land, create the expectation of a continuous decline in the South African maize production area. Besides the economic factors affecting maize production, the granting of mining permits in the Mpumalanga province, coupled with the policy objectives spurring agricultural development in South Africa s former homelands, induces a substantial shift in the location of maize production. Furthermore, The Former Homeland Region of the Eastern Cape were identified as being capable of effecting the potential reallocation of land suitable for growing maize. Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis is typically utilised to spatially identify biophysically suitable areas for crop production. However, economic viability or suitability is seldom the focus of multi-criteria spatial analysis. Refinement was therefore necessary to evaluate a field of study where the economics of land use inform the spatial allocation of production. Informed by the South African government s maize reallocation initiatives, this study undertook a spatially explicit assessment of the likely shifts in the location of maize production, analysing biophysical and economic factors in play. Spatial criteria informing production allocation was reviewed based on existing spatial analytical methodologies, of which the Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) is an example of such as production allocation model. The most applicable criteria to determine the economics of spatial allocation were identified as: a) modelling the location of production, b) biophysical cropland suitability, c) modelling land use change, and d) spatial allocation modelling concerned with resource optimisation and profit maximisation. This existing methodology was combined and altered to a South African-based application in the Former Homeland Region of the Eastern Cape. The reviewed outcome informed which criteria to incorporate into spatial economic analysis. The criteria was further adapted to an Economically Suitable Spatial Allocation (ESSA) framework utilising existing South African spatial data and models. It was found that the ESSA framework could provide an additional approach to multi-criteria GIS modelling applied in the field of agricultural land use allocation. This framework addresses the incongruity between the outcomes of land capability, crop suitability and the economic factors determining production in the Former Homeland Region of the Eastern Cape. The key findings indicate that a total area of 298 367 hectares for potential dryland maize could be allocated in the Former Homeland Region of the Eastern Cape, with the production potential estimated at 971 750 tons of maize. However, since local un-milled maize consumption was derived at approximately 260 000 tons, it implies that under a scenario where close to one million tons of maize is produced in the Former Homeland Region of the Eastern Cape, surplus maize will have to be transported out of the region, which will bring new dynamics into the regional markets and the economic realities of smallholder farmers. The farm gate prices will typically decline by a margin linked to the transportation and transaction costs to move the maize. Surplus availability of maize will on the other hand stimulate trade and further downstream activities in the value chain. en_ZA
dc.description.availability Unrestricted en
dc.description.degree MCom en
dc.description.department Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development en
dc.description.librarian tm2016 en
dc.identifier.citation Van der Burgh, G 2016, The economics of spatial reallocation of maize production in South Africa, MCom Dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd <http://hdl.handle.net/2263/57165> en
dc.identifier.other S2016 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/57165
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher University of Pretoria en_ZA
dc.rights © 2016 University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. en
dc.subject UCTD en
dc.subject Maize production
dc.subject Economic viability
dc.subject Land use allocation
dc.subject Geographic Information System (GIS)
dc.subject Spatial analysis
dc.subject Biophysical suitability
dc.subject Eastern Cape
dc.subject Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM)
dc.subject Economically Suitable Spatial Allocation (ESSA)
dc.subject Resource optimisation
dc.subject Profit maximisation
dc.subject Agricultural policy
dc.subject Market dynamics
dc.subject Surplus maize
dc.subject Transportation costs
dc.subject Smallholder farmers
dc.subject Agricultural development
dc.subject Mpumalanga mining permits
dc.subject.other Natural and agricultural sciences theses SDG-01
dc.subject.other SDG-01: No poverty
dc.subject.other Natural and agricultural sciences theses SDG-02
dc.subject.other SDG-02: Zero hunger
dc.subject.other Natural and agricultural sciences theses SDG-08
dc.subject.other SDG-08: Decent work and economic growth
dc.subject.other Natural and agricultural sciences theses SDG-09
dc.subject.other SDG-09: Industry, innovation and infrastructure
dc.subject.other Natural and agricultural sciences theses SDG-10
dc.subject.other SDG-10: Reduced inequalities
dc.subject.other Natural and agricultural sciences theses SDG-13
dc.subject.other SDG-13: Climate action
dc.title The economics of spatial reallocation of maize production in South Africa en_ZA
dc.type Dissertation en


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