An economy-wide evaluation of new power generation in South Africa : the case of Medupi and Kusile

Show simple item record Bohlmann, Jessika Andreina Bohlmann, Heinrich R. Inglesi-Lotz, Roula Van Heerden, J.H. (Jan Horn), 1957- 2016-08-30T14:05:43Z 2016-10
dc.description.abstract This paper investigates the role that the building of two new power stations, Medupi and Kusile, will play in facilitating future economic activity in South Africa. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the economy-wide effects of these new power stations. Our simulation results also provide insight into how much the local economy has lost due to inadequate electricity supply in the period leading up to the construction of Medupi and Kusile. We find that the decision to build additional power generation capacity was necessary and justified, and that the failure to sooner recognise the need for expansion of the country’s electricity generation capacity and subsequent delays in commissioning Medupi and Kusile, likely cost the economy over R110bn in lost production. Additional analysis, in which a further two-year delay in the construction of Medupi and Kusile is simulated, shows that such an event will cause the economy to perform below baseline projections up to 2022. en_ZA
dc.description.department Economics en_ZA
dc.description.embargo 2017-10-31
dc.description.librarian hb2016 en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorship Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) en_ZA
dc.description.uri en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Bohlmann, J, Bohlmann, H, Inglesi-Lotz, R & Van Heerden, JH 2016, 'An economy-wide evaluation of new power generation in South Africa : the case of Medupi and Kusile', Energy Policy, vol. 97, pp. 450-460. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 0301-4215 (print)
dc.identifier.issn 1873-6777 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.07.020
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Elsevier en_ZA
dc.rights © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy Policy. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy Policy, vol. 97, pp. 450-460, 2016. doi : 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.07.020. en_ZA
dc.subject Electricity supply en_ZA
dc.subject Computable general equilibrium (CGE) en_ZA
dc.subject University of Pretoria General Equilibrium Model (UPGEM) en_ZA
dc.title An economy-wide evaluation of new power generation in South Africa : the case of Medupi and Kusile en_ZA
dc.type Postprint Article en_ZA

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