Project managers normally are facing with di culties behind
management of project cash flow, which requires distinguished
methods and appropriate tools to manage negative cash flows.
Cash-Flow-at-Risk (CFaR) model is an e cient approach to
predict cash flow trend. In this study, all risk factors a ecting
project management environment have incorporated to predict
an accurate project cash flow. Then, a response surface method
(RSM) is applied to determine optimal level of risk. The results
have successfully implemented through a case study to demonstrate
the applicability of the proposed method.