Invasion debt - quantifying future biological invasions

Show simple item record Rouget, Mathieu Robertson, Mark P. Wilson, John R.U Hui, Cang Essl, Franz Renteria, Jorge Richardson, David M. 2016-07-21T07:57:09Z 2016-04
dc.description.abstract AIM : We develop a framework for quantifying invasions based on lagged trends in invasions (―invasion debt‖) with the aim of identifying appropriate metrics to quantify delayed responses at different invasion stages — from introduction to when environmental impacts occur. LOCATION : Worldwide; detailed case-study in South Africa METHODS : We define four components of invasion debt: the number of species not yet introduced but likely to be introduced in the future given current levels of introduction / propagule pressure; the establishment of introduced species; the potential increase in area invaded by established species (including invasive species); and the potential increase in impacts. We demonstrate the approach in terms of number of species for 21 known invasive Australian Acacia species globally, and estimate three components of invasion debt for 58 Acacia species already introduced to South Africa by quantifying key invasion factors (environmental suitability, species invasion status, residence time, propagule pressure, spread rate and impacts). RESULTS : Current global patterns of invasive species richness reflect historical trends of introduction—most acacia species that will become invasive in southern Africa have already invaded, but there is a substantial establishment debt in South and North America. In South Africa, the likely consequence of invasion debt over the next 20 years was estimated at: four additional species becoming invasive with an average increase of 1075 km2 invaded area per invasive species. We estimate that this would require over US$ 500 million to clear. Main conclusions: Our results indicate that invasion debt is a valuable metric for reporting on the threats attributable to biological invasions, that invasion debt must be factored into strategic plans for managing global change, and, as with other studies, they highlight the value of proactive management. Given the uncertainty associated with biological invasions, further work is required to quantify the different components of invasion debt. en_ZA
dc.description.department Zoology and Entomology en_ZA
dc.description.embargo 2017-04-30
dc.description.librarian hb2016 en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorship We acknowledge funding from the National Research Foundation (grants 76912, 81825 and 89967 to CH; grant 85417 to DMR) and the DST-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology. JRUW and JLR were supported by the South African National Department of Environment Affairs through its funding of the South African National Biodiversity Institute Invasive Species Programme. FE received funding from the Austrian Science Foundation (FWF grant I2096-B16). We acknowledge support from the South African Research Chairs Initiative of the Department of Science and Technology and the National Research Foundation of South Africa. en_ZA
dc.description.uri en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Rouget, M, Robertson, MP, Wilson, JRU, Hui, C, Essl, F, Renteria, JL & Richardson, DM 2016, 'Invasion debt - quantifying future biological invasions', Diversity and Distributions, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 445-456. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 1366-9516 (print)
dc.identifier.issn 1472-4642 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1111/ddi.12408
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Wiley en_ZA
dc.rights © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article : Invasion debt - quantifying future biological invasions, Diversity and Distributions, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 445-456, 2016. doi : 10.1111/ddi.12408. The definite version is available at : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.comjournal/10.1111(ISSN)1472-4642. en_ZA
dc.subject Acacia en_ZA
dc.subject Biological invasions en_ZA
dc.subject Climatic suitability en_ZA
dc.subject Global change en_ZA
dc.subject Invasive species en_ZA
dc.subject Lag phase en_ZA
dc.subject Risk assessment en_ZA
dc.subject Tree invasions en_ZA
dc.title Invasion debt - quantifying future biological invasions en_ZA
dc.type Postprint Article en_ZA

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