The impact of statistical learning on violations of the sure-thing principle

Show simple item record Nicholls, Nicky Romm, Aylit Tina Zimper, Alexander 2016-07-11T06:14:11Z 2016-07-11T06:14:11Z 2015-02
dc.description.abstract This paper experimentally tests whether violations of Savage s (1954) sure- thing principle (STP) decrease through statistical learning. Our subjects repeat- edly had to bet on the drawings from an urn with an unknown proportion of di¤erently colored balls. The control group was thereby subjected to learning through mere thought only. In addition, the test group received more and more statistical information over the course of the experiment by observing the color of the ball actually drawn after each bet. We expected that statistical learning would decrease the decision makers ambiguity, thereby implying a stronger de- crease of STP violations in the test than in the control group. However, our data surprisingly shows that learning by mere thought rather than statistical learning leads to a decrease in STP violations. en_ZA
dc.description.department Economics en_ZA
dc.description.librarian hb2016 en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorship Aylit and Nicky gratefully acknowledge nancial funding of the experiment by the School of Economics and Business Sciences at Wits. We all gratefully acknowledge nancial support from Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA). en_ZA
dc.description.uri en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Nicholls, N, Tina, A & Zimper, A 2015, 'The impact of statistical learning on violations of the sure-thing principle', Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol. 50, no. 2, pp. 97-115 en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 0895-5646 (print)
dc.identifier.issn 1573-0476 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1007/s11166-015-9210-y
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Springer en_ZA
dc.rights © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015. The original publication is available at : en_ZA
dc.subject Learning en_ZA
dc.subject Statistical learning en_ZA
dc.subject Prospect theory en_ZA
dc.subject Independence axiom en_ZA
dc.subject Sure-thing principle (STP) en_ZA
dc.title The impact of statistical learning on violations of the sure-thing principle en_ZA
dc.type Postprint Article en_ZA

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