Abstract:
Conceptualising energy security is of the upmost importance when considering any
definition of energy security applicable to a country or geographical context. This
conceptualisation leads to the definition and allocation of applicable influencing
elements, that ultimately underpin this definition, but more importantly lead to policy and
the associated legislation formulation. A major contributing factor to energy security for
any country is the understanding of the relationship between economic growth and
energy consumption. There are various phases (Growth, Conservation, Neutral and
Feedback hypothesis) of this relationship and each is represented by a different causal
direction. This relationship forms a critical factor to consider when conceptualising
energy security. A Second critical factor underpinning energy security is the selection of
the appropriate electricity generation mix. Currently South Africa is dominated by coal as
energy source, with nuclear, gas, diesel and recently renewable sources that contribute
electricity to the national grid. Much of the worlds, including South Africa, generation fleet
is reaching end of life and is standing at a pivotal point having to decide on the
appropriate energy mix that allows transitioning to an environmentally friendly generation
fleet.
This research set out to review the South African energy policies to ascertain whether
the encapsulated elements are still valid and current, to review the historical 3 :2
economic growth and energy consumption relationship utilised in the Integrated
Resource Plan 2010 formulation to determine its validity and ultimately to explore the
possibility of a 100% renewable energy generation profile for South Africa. A case study
methodology was employed, where interviews with industry experts were analysed and
validity of emerging themes plaid with the introduction of secondary data.
The research has found that i) the current definition of energy security, as stipulated in
the South Africa Energy Master Plan (2007), is out of date and needs revision, ii) the
historical 3 :2 economic growth and energy consumption relationship is out of date and it
is recommended that a bottom up sectoral analysis be done to determine the current
relationship and iii) the a 100% renewable energy generation profile for South Africa is
not currently feasible until such time as electricity storage becomes an economical viable
option.
