The study compares one- and two-tiered forecasting systems as represented by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) Coupled Model (SCM) and its atmosphere-only version. In this comparative framework, the main difference between these Global Climate Models (GCMs) resides in the manner in which the sea-surface temperature (SST) is represented. The models are effectively kept similar in all other aspects. This strategy may allow the role of coupling on the predictive skill differences to be better distinguished. The result reveals that the GCMs differ widely in their performances and the issue of superiority of one model over the other is mostly dependent on the ability to a priori determine an optimal global SST field for forcing the Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). Notwithstanding, the AGCM’s fidelity is reasonably reduced when the AGCM is constrained with persisting SST anomalies to the extent to which the Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM)’s superiority becomes noticeable. The result suggests that the boundary forcing coming from the optimal SST field plays a significant role in leveraging a reasonable equivalency in the predictive skill of the two GCM configurations.
Since the emergence of systematic science it has been recognized that a natural phenomenon can be described
by different models that vary in their complexity and their ability to capture the details of the features
Terblanche, S.E. (Stephanus Esaias), 1940-; Stevens, Joseph Benjamin; Sekgota, Mpolaeng Gilbert(South African Society for Agricultural Extension, Department of Agriculture, Economics, Extension and Rural Development, University of Pretoria, 2014)
The Sustainable Restitution Support – South Africa (SRS-SA) program aimed at the development of a post-settlement support model that could be used to support beneficiaries of land reform in South Africa, especially those ...
Olivier, Laurentz Eugene; Craig, Ian K.(Elsevier, 2013-02)
The performance of a model predictive controller depends on the quality of
the plant model that is available. Often parameters in a run-of-mine (ROM)
ore milling circuit are uncertain and inaccurate parameter estimation ...