The eradication of extreme poverty is a key component in the post-2015 Millennium
Development Goals process and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. This paper
uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore this goal and finds that
many African states are unlikely to make this target by 2030, even when modelling
a package of aggressive poverty reduction interventions. In addition to country-level
targets the authors also argue in favour of a goal that would see Africa as a whole
reducing extreme poverty to below 15% by 2030, and below 4% by 2045.