Seasonal forecasts of the SINTEX-F coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north-eastern South Africa

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Authors

Malherbe, Johan
Landman, Willem Adolf
Olivier, Cobus
Sakuma, H.
Luo, J-J

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

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Publisher

Wiley

Abstract

Forecasts of a Global Coupled Model for Austral summer with a 1-month lead are downscaled to end-of-season maize yields and accumulated streamflow over the Limpopo Province and adjacent districts in northeastern South Africa through application of a MOS (Model Output Statistics) approach applied over a 28-year period. Promising results, based on the hindcasts of the Global Models and historically observed yield and streamflow data, suggest potential for a commodity-orientated forecast system for application in agriculture in an operational environment. It also serves as a baseline study for inclusion of sophisticated crop or runoff models utilising GCM output data towards estimating potential yields and streamflows in the region.

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Keywords

Seasonal forecasts, SINTEX-F coupled model, Maize yield, Streamflow estimates, North-eastern, South Africa

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Citation

Malherbe, J, Landman, WA, Olivier, C, Sakuma, H & Luo, J-J 2014, 'Seasonal forecasts of the SINTEX-F coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north-eastern South Africa', Meteorological Applications, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 733-742.