Seasonal forecasts of the SINTEX-F coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north-eastern South Africa
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Date
Authors
Malherbe, Johan
Landman, Willem Adolf
Olivier, Cobus
Sakuma, H.
Luo, J-J
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Wiley
Abstract
Forecasts of a Global Coupled Model for Austral summer with a 1-month lead are
downscaled to end-of-season maize yields and accumulated streamflow over the Limpopo
Province and adjacent districts in northeastern South Africa through application of a MOS
(Model Output Statistics) approach applied over a 28-year period. Promising results, based on the hindcasts of the Global Models and historically observed yield and streamflow data,
suggest potential for a commodity-orientated forecast system for application in agriculture in
an operational environment. It also serves as a baseline study for inclusion of sophisticated
crop or runoff models utilising GCM output data towards estimating potential yields and
streamflows in the region.
Description
Keywords
Seasonal forecasts, SINTEX-F coupled model, Maize yield, Streamflow estimates, North-eastern, South Africa
Sustainable Development Goals
Citation
Malherbe, J, Landman, WA, Olivier, C, Sakuma, H & Luo, J-J 2014, 'Seasonal forecasts of the SINTEX-F coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north-eastern South Africa', Meteorological Applications, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 733-742.