Understanding emission reductions in the freight transport sector through system dynamics

Abstract

Paper presented at the 33rd Annual Southern African Transport Conference 7-10 July 2014 "Leading Transport into the Future", CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa.

The National Climate Change Response White Paper presents the government’s commitment to moving to a lower carbon economy in South Africa. The White Paper requires significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sectors, including transport, to define “bottom up” carbon budgets. This work forms part of the WWF low carbon frameworks transport project and explores the implications of strategies for GHG emission reductions in the freight transport sub-sector within this context. The study uses system dynamics modelling to interrogate mitigation opportunities in this sector by looking specifically at the transport of processed food along the Cape Town-Gauteng corridor. Stakeholder input from business, labour and government is used to guide the modelling process. The objectives are to explore the implications of strategies for GHG emission reductions in the freight transport sub-sector as well as its impacts on the wider economy and environment; determine the barriers to change, with a specific focus on the mode switch from road to rail; recommend appropriate measures that could ensure developments towards achieving sustainability in transportation planning; and identify possible opportunities for further research and innovation. The methodology behind the model as well as the initial casual loop diagrams for the system dynamics model are presented in this paper.