Paper presented at the 33rd Annual Southern African Transport Conference 7-10 July 2014 "Leading Transport into the Future", CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa.
The National Climate Change Response White Paper presents the government’s
commitment to moving to a lower carbon economy in South Africa. The White Paper
requires significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sectors, including transport, to define
“bottom up” carbon budgets. This work forms part of the WWF low carbon frameworks
transport project and explores the implications of strategies for GHG emission reductions
in the freight transport sub-sector within this context. The study uses system dynamics
modelling to interrogate mitigation opportunities in this sector by looking specifically at the
transport of processed food along the Cape Town-Gauteng corridor. Stakeholder input
from business, labour and government is used to guide the modelling process. The
objectives are to explore the implications of strategies for GHG emission reductions in the
freight transport sub-sector as well as its impacts on the wider economy and environment;
determine the barriers to change, with a specific focus on the mode switch from road to
rail; recommend appropriate measures that could ensure developments towards achieving
sustainability in transportation planning; and identify possible opportunities for further
research and innovation. The methodology behind the model as well as the initial casual
loop diagrams for the system dynamics model are presented in this paper.
