Abstract:
Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria
districts, and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of
malaria at district level in the province, determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and
causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their
short- and long-run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are
applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998–2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather
Services, while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and
South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with
a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship
for rainfall, r = 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and
not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, q = 0.0232 and F (1, 117) = 20.08, P < 0.001 and between rainfall and
temperature, a bi-directional causality exists: F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14, P < 0.001, respectively,
meaning that rainfall affects temperature and vice versa. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run
relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance
than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo
Province.
