Abstract:
The present study employed an econometric framework of land-use shares at the scale of a district
to analyse the effects of different socio-economic, bio-physical and climatic factors on land-share
allocations to agriculture, forest and grass shrubland in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and
People’s Region of Ethiopia. The results of the empirical analysis confirmed the significant role
played by access to credit, access to markets, population density and road density in the allocation
of land to competing uses. The results have important implications for the sustainability of current
agricultural intensification policies and rural development strategies in Ethiopia, such as the
sustainable land management (SLMP) initiative. For example, it is important to include densely
populated regions in the SLMP target areas, as high population pressure remains a major cause of
land conversion to agriculture and hence needs to be addressed. It will be necessary to create
income and employment opportunities outside farming to reduce the pressure of population growth
on land. Care must be taken in identifying routes for the construction of rural road networks with
minimal environmental impact. Credit provision must consider other, more capital-intensive
technologies such as the irrigation needed to reduce pressure on the land through improved
productivity. In addition to the promotion of higher adoption of modern technologies to levels that
allow the realisation of the land-saving effects of intensification and productivity gains, strategies
and policies are needed to encourage intensification of agricultural production in non-forested
land. Furthermore, forest policies that facilitate the capturing of forest rents are important for the
preservation of forests. Programmes and strategies to exploit multiple benefits from the various
forest ecosystems’ services, such as clear and secure land and forest property rights, and land use
and forest policies that give carbon rights to land users and allow communal administration of
forests, are prerequisites to enhance forest benefits as the main incentive for conservation.
