Abstract:
To achieve optimum results business leaders need to focus substantial
resources towards developing a long term business strategy. However through
a constantly changing business environment, leaders have to continuously
review and adapt this strategy to meet new demands and challenges.
Regulatory change has a major impact on business, as regulation serves as the
convergence touch point between business and government, and this
dimension has been identified as the number one contributor to business
uncertainty. To meet this challenge business needs foresight and a knowledge
of the future in uncertain times best achieved through the undertaking of future
studies.
There are many methodologies to undertake a future study, each with its own
strengths and weaknesses. General morphological analysis was identified as a
method which through its specification and design is an ideal candidate through
which the complex and uncertain regulatory future could be thoroughly
investigated. This studies aims to critically evaluate the robustness and
appropriateness of general morphological analysis as an aid in strategic design
when dealing with regulation, regulatory change and regulatory uncertain.
The methodology was thoroughly evaluated through the undertaking of a
general morphological analysis of the airline industry. Through interviews with
airline c-suite executives and senior consultants to the industry, dimensions
affecting airline future states were identified. Through this process a likely future
for the airline industry relating to the regulatory environment was described,
specifically highlighting ownership and route access as dimensions of primary
impact and uncertainty. This report was presented to the airline executives and
consultants who assessed the report to evaluate the methodology.
83% of the executive and consultant feedback found that the report produced
using general morphological analysis would be accurate. Further they found
that through the process; strong, in-depth and thorough insight was uncovered.
Two thirds of the expert respondents stated that they would now consider
utilising general morphological analysis in their organisation as a strategy
planning tool going forward.
