Extension of the parametric - Historic procedure for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Abstract

Some validations of and extensions to the Parametric‐Historic procedure as developed in a two‐paper sequel by Andrzej Kijko and Gerhard Graham in 1998 and 1999 are presented. The source‐free distribution they derive is validated through a somewhat more rigorous mathematical derivation. The approach is also extended in two ways. The first extension involves direct application of the estimators, which they used to determine maximum regional magnitude, now to directly determine the maximum possible peak ground acceleration at a specific site. The second extension is a generalization of the distribution of peak ground acceleration in a semi‐closed form solution to incorporate a wider range of ground motion prediction equations. The first extension is straightforward and is simultaneously developed and validated by example application to actual ground motion data. The second extension is derived and then applied to a specific ground motion prediction equation as example to illustrate its performance.