Browsing Working Papers (Economics) by Title

Browsing Working Papers (Economics) by Title

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  • Predicting downturns in US housing market : a Bayesian approach 
    Gupta, Rangan; Das, Sonali (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    This paper estimates Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, both spatial and non-spatial (univariate and multivariate), for the twenty largest states of the US economy, using quarterly data over the period 1976:Q1 ...
  • Quantifying the potential of restored natural capital to alleviate poverty and help conserve nature : a case study from South Africa 
    Blignaut, James Nelson; Moolman, Christina Elizabeth (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2006-02)
    The question addressed in this chapter is whether a community conservation initiative (coupled with the restoration of degraded land) can be considered a feasible alternative land use option compared to subsistence ...
  • R&D, openness, and growth 
    Gupta, Rangan; Chen, Pei-Pei (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2006-12)
    Recent studies have pointed out that trade liberalisation leads to technological spillovers, which, in turn, tend to improve the efficiency of the domestic Research and Development (R&D) sector, and ultimately boost ...
  • Returns to schooling : skills accumulation or information revelation? 
    Koch, Steven F.; Ntege, S. Ssekabira (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    This paper explores the degree to which imperfect information in the labour market regarding worker quality is likely to impact employment opportunities, as well as the wages associated with those opportunities. The primary ...
  • “Ripple effects” and forecasting home prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Phoenix 
    Gupta, Rangan; Miller, Stephen M. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-01)
    We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. First, temporal Granger causality tests reveal that Los Angeles housing prices cause housing prices in Las Vegas ...
  • Role of governance in explaining domestic investment in Nigeria 
    Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-03)
    This study empirically examines the pattern of domestic investment that is consistent with a neoclassical supply-side model of the Nigerian economy. The estimations are carried out with time-series data from 1970 to 2006 ...
  • Semiparametric stochastic frontier analysis of specialist surgeon clinics 
    Koch, Steven F.; Slabbert, Jean D. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-09)
    A purposive sample of South African specialist surgeons was used to nonparametrically estimate production relations for single output and multiple output production processes. The analysis was further extended to ...
  • Should the SARB have stayed time inconsistent? 
    Gupta, Rangan; Uwilingiye, Josine (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-10)
    This paper derives the econometric restrictions imposed by the Barro and Gordon (1983) model of dynamic time inconsistency on a bivariate time-series model of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and real Gross Domestic ...
  • Social ingredients and conditional convergence in the study of sectoral growth 
    Van Eyden, Renee; Ngoie, Jacques Kibambe; Du Toit, Charlotte Barbara (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-12)
    In this research article, we investigate the improved modelling ability and the outstanding policy advocacy of infusing health and education in sectoral growth equations of the South African economy. Our findings not only ...
  • Some benefits of reducing inflation in South Africa 
    Gupta, Rangan; Uwilingiye, Josine (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-07)
    This paper evaluates the welfare gain from reducing inflation permanently from two percent to price stability and compares the output cost associate with this transition. The paper emphasizes the distortions caused by the ...
  • South Africa trade liberalization and poverty in a dynamic microsimulation CGE model 
    Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret; Mabugu, Ramos (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-09)
    South Africa has undergone significant trade liberalization since the end of apartheid. Average protection has fallen while openness has increased. However, economic growth has been insufficient to make inroads into the ...
  • South African stock return predictability in the context of data mining : the role of financial variables and international stock returns 
    Gupta, Rangan; Modise, Mampho P. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-12)
    In this paper, we examine the predictive ability, both in-sample and the out-of-sample, for South African stock returns using a number of financial variables, based on monthly data with an in-sample period covering 1990:01 ...
  • South Africa’s wood export potential using a gravity model 
    Eita, Joel Hinaunye; Jordaan, Andre Cillie (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-10)
    Under the Accelerated Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (ASGISA), the South African government identified priority sectors that need to be promoted and developed in order to accelerate growth and reduce unemployment ...
  • Structural breaks and GARCH models of stock return volatility : the case of South Africa 
    Gupta, Rangan; Mwabutwa, Chance; Babikir, Ali; Owusu-Sekyere, Emmanuel (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-12)
    This paper investigates the empirical relevance of structural breaks in forecasting stock return volatility using both in-sample and out-of-sample tests and daily returns for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All Share ...
  • Tax evasion and financial repression : a reconsideration using endogenous growth models 
    Gupta, Rangan; Ziramba, Emmanuel (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-05)
    Using two dynamic monetary general equilibrium models characterized by endogenous growth, financial repression and endogenously determined tax evasion, we analyze whether financial repression can be explained by tax ...
  • Technical barriers to trade faced by South African SMME's 
    Peet, Michael Andrew; Koch, Steven F. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2005-12)
    South Africa is an open economy, and, therefore, it is affected by what happens in foreign markets. Exports and export growth are cornerstones of South African economic development policy. One of the implications of ...
  • Temporal causality between budget deficit and interest rate : the case of South Africa 
    Gupta, Rangan; Josine, Uwilingiye (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-06)
    This paper investigates the direction of temporal causality between budget deficit and interest rate in South Africa using quarterly data for the period of 1961:02 to 2005:04, and also for annual data covering 1961 to ...
  • Temporal causality between taxes and public expenditures : the case of South Africa 
    Gupta, Rangan; Ndahiriwe, Kasai (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-07)
    This paper investigates the direction of causal relationship between taxes and expenditure in South Africa, using quarterly data for the period 1960:1-2006:2, and annual data for 1960 to 2005. For both frequencies, gross ...
  • Testing for fractional integration in SADC real exchange rates 
    Gupta, Rangan; Van Eyden, Renee; Mokoena, Thabo Mishack (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    This paper utilises “a class test for fractional integration” associated with the seminal contribution of Hinich and Chong (2007) to appraise the possibility that South African Development Community (SADC) real exchange ...
  • Testing for PPP using SADC real exchange rates 
    Gupta, Rangan; Van Eyden, Renee; Mokoena, Thabo Mishack (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-06)
    This paper attempts to provide evidence indicating that the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) puzzle is becoming less of a puzzle. It present the results of Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) test, nonlinear tests of nonstationarity, ...