Browsing Working Papers (Economics) by Title

Browsing Working Papers (Economics) by Title

Sort by: Order: Results:

  • Forecasting monetary rules in South Africa 
    Naraidoo, Ruthira; Paya, Ivan (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-03)
    This paper is the first one to analyze the ability of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rule specifications as well as nonparametric and semiparametric models in forecasting the nominal interest rate setting that describes ...
  • Forecasting Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using coincident and leading employment indexes 
    Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; Majumdar, Anandamayee; Miller, Stephen M. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-07)
    This paper provides out-of-sample forecasts of Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using a battery of linear and non-linear forecasting models and univariate and multivariate techniques. The linear models include ...
  • Forecasting real US house price : principal components versus Bayesian regressions 
    Gupta, Rangan; Kabundi, Alain (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-02)
    This paper analyzes the ability of principal component regressions and Bayesian regression methods under Gaussian and double-exponential prior in forecasting the real house price of the United States (US), based on a ...
  • Forecasting the South African economy : a DSGE-VAR approach 
    Gupta, Rangan; Lui, Guangling; Schaling, Eric (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-07-30)
    This paper develops an estimable hybrid model that combines the micro-founded DSGE model with the °exibility of the theoretical VAR model. The model is estimated via the maximum likelihood technique based on quarterly ...
  • Forecasting the US real house price index : structural and non-structural models with and without fundamentals 
    Gupta, Rangan; Kabundi, Alain; Miller, Stephen M. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-12)
    We employ a 10-variable dynamic structural general equilibrium model to forecast the US real house price index as well as its turning point in 2006:Q2. We also examine various Bayesian and classical time-series models in ...
  • Foreign direct investment : South Africa's elixir of life? 
    Moolman, Christina Elizabeth; Roos, E.L.; Le Roux, J.C.; Du Toit, Charlotte Barbara (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2006-02)
    Foreign direct investment (FDI) has of late been revered as the solution to a great deal of the developing world’s problems. This paper seeks to examine the macroeconomic link between foreign direct investment in South ...
  • Fractional multinomial response models with an application to expenditure shares 
    Koch, Steven F. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-10)
    The research presented here considers the performance of the Fractional Multinomial Logit (FMNL) model in explaining expenditure shares using data from the 2005/06 South African Income and Expenditure Survey. The results ...
  • The general equilibrium effects of a productivity increase on the economy and gender in South Africa 
    Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret; Kinyondo, Godbertha Kokubanza (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-02)
    This study utilises a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the effects of economy-wide (SIM 1) and partial (SIM 2) productivity increases on the economy, gender employment, wages, income and welfare in ...
  • Growth theory and application : the case of South Africa 
    Lui, Guangling (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-09)
    This essay is a comparison study of traditional Neoclassical growth theory and new growth theory. It also discusses growth theory in the real world by investigating the so called “growth miracles” and “growth disasters” ...
  • Growth-effects of inflation targeting : the role of financial sector development 
    Gupta, Rangan (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2006-03)
    The paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium monetary endogenous growth model of a closed economy inhabited by consumers, firms, a Cournotian monopolistically competitive banking system, besides, an inflation-targeting ...
  • Half-life deviations from PPP in the SADC 
    Gupta, Rangan; Van Eyden, Renee; Mokoena, Thabo Mishack (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-07)
    This paper utilises various recently developed econometric methods to obtain better approximations to the half-life for real exchange rates of ten South African Development Community (SADC) countries and to generate ...
  • Hurdle models of alcohol and tobacco expenditure in South African households 
    Koch, Steven F.; Ground, Marc (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-02)
    Estimates of participation or expenditure elasticities depend upon the assumptions made regarding the observation of zero expenditure at the household level. This research examines two single-hurdle models across two ...
  • The impact of an electricity generation tax on the South African economy 
    Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret; Van Heerden, J.H. (Jan Horn), 1957-; Seymore, Reyno; Blignaut, James Nelson; Adams, Philip D. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-08)
    In the 2008 budget of the Minister of Finance, the South African Government proposed to impose a 2 cents/kilowatt-hour (c/kWh) tax on the sale of electricity generated from non-renewable sources; this tax is to be collected ...
  • The impact of retirement benefits on consumption and saving in South Africa 
    Nhabinde, V.C. (Vasco Correia); Schoeman, N.J. (Nicolaas Johannes) (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2008-02)
    In this paper we empirically analyse the impact of retirement benefits on consumption and personal saving in South Africa using the Feldstein 1974 specification and procedure. By using a basic extended Ando-Modigliani life ...
  • The impact of the global economic crisis on sub-national government – lessons from the Free State Province in South Africa 
    Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret; Maisonnave, Helene; Mahabir, Jugal; Mabugu, Ramos (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-06)
    A provincial computable general equilibrium model for the Free State province in South Africa is used to quantify the channels by which the recent global economic crisis affects the province. The analysis allows focus on ...
  • The impact of the international economic crisis on child poverty in South Africa 
    Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret; Decaluwe, Bernard; Mabugu, Ramos; Maisonnave, Helene; Robichaud, Veronique; Shepherd, Debra; Van der Berg, Servaas; Von Fintel, Dieter (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-06)
    This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated with the recent global economic crisis in macroeconomic terms in South Africa, the country’s capacity to withstand or cushion ...
  • An in-sample and out-of-sample empirical investigation of the nonlinearity in house prices of South Africa 
    Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; Shah, Zahra B. (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-03)
    This paper first tests if housing prices in the five segments of the South African housing market, namely, large-middle, medium-middle, small-middle, luxury and affordable, exhibits non-linearity based on smooth transition ...
  • Inflation and economic growth in Latin America : some panel time-series evidence 
    Bittencourt, Manoel (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2010-04)
    In this paper we investigate the role of poor macroeconomic performance, in terms of high rates of inflation, in determining economic growth in four Latin American countries between 1970 and 2007. The empirical results, ...
  • Inflation and the household : towards a measurement of the welfare costs of inflation 
    Koch, Steven F.; Bosch, Adel (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2009-08)
    This paper considers household expenditure patterns through the estimation of parametric share estimates. The parameters from these expenditure share estimates are then used to simulate the underlying income transfer ...
  • Investigating the bank lending channel in South Africa : a VAR approach 
    Ludi, Kirsten L.; Ground, Marc (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2006-02)
    The monetary policy transmission mechanism can broadly be categorised into three separate channels: the interest rate channel, the credit channel and the other asset price channel. This paper seeks to examine the ...