Browsing Working Papers (Economics) by Issue Date

Browsing Working Papers (Economics) by Issue Date

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  • Bayesian methods of forecasting inventory investment in South Africa 
    Gupta, Rangan (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-02)
    This paper develops a Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) for forecasting inventory investment in South Africa. The model is estimated using quarterly data on actual sales, production, unfilled orders, price ...
  • Hurdle models of alcohol and tobacco expenditure in South African households 
    Koch, Steven F.; Ground, Marc (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-02)
    Estimates of participation or expenditure elasticities depend upon the assumptions made regarding the observation of zero expenditure at the household level. This research examines two single-hurdle models across two ...
  • Modelling and forecasting the metical-rand exchange rate 
    Gupta, Rangan; Zita, Samuel (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-02)
    This paper investigates the ability of the Dornbusch (1976) sticky-price model for the nominal metical-rand exchange rate, over the period 1994:1-2005:4 in explaining the exchange rate movements of Mozambique. Based on ...
  • Measuring the determinants of educational spending in Africa 
    Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele; Schoeman, N.J. (Nicolaas Johannes) (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-05)
    This paper reports on research aimed at measuring the determinants of education spending in Africa and secondly, investigates whether expenditure on education in Africa optimizes social welfare. The empirical estimations ...
  • Temporal causality between budget deficit and interest rate : the case of South Africa 
    Gupta, Rangan; Josine, Uwilingiye (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-06)
    This paper investigates the direction of temporal causality between budget deficit and interest rate in South Africa using quarterly data for the period of 1961:02 to 2005:04, and also for annual data covering 1961 to ...
  • A Dynamic enquiry into the causes of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe 
    Makochekanwa, Albert (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-07)
    The purpose of this study is to determine the causes of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe for the period February 1999 to December 2006 using appropriate econometric techniques. Results from long run and shot run econometric ...
  • Temporal causality between taxes and public expenditures : the case of South Africa 
    Gupta, Rangan; Ndahiriwe, Kasai (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-07)
    This paper investigates the direction of causal relationship between taxes and expenditure in South Africa, using quarterly data for the period 1960:1-2006:2, and annual data for 1960 to 2005. For both frequencies, gross ...
  • Zimbabwe's black market for foreign exchange 
    Makochekanwa, Albert (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-07)
    This paper looks into the changes of the black market premium for foreign exchange in Zimbabwe. Generally, the black market for foreign exchange arises as a direct consequence of the adoption of exchange rate controls ...
  • Zimbabwe's hyperinflation money demand model 
    Makochekanwa, Albert (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-07)
    The research attempts to empirically study the demand for money, especially the magnitudes of the price expectation and real cash balance adjustment for Zimbabwe. Price expectation and real cash balance adjustment models ...
  • An empirical investigation of capital flight from Zimbabwe 
    Makochekanwa, Albert (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-07)
    This paper investigates the causes of capital flight from Zimbabwe for the period 1980 to 2005. The results show external debt, foreign direct investment inflows, and foreign reserves to be the major causers of capital ...
  • Forecasting the South African economy : a DSGE-VAR approach 
    Gupta, Rangan; Lui, Guangling; Schaling, Eric (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-07-30)
    This paper develops an estimable hybrid model that combines the micro-founded DSGE model with the °exibility of the theoretical VAR model. The model is estimated via the maximum likelihood technique based on quarterly ...
  • South Africa trade liberalization and poverty in a dynamic microsimulation CGE model 
    Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret; Mabugu, Ramos (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-09)
    South Africa has undergone significant trade liberalization since the end of apartheid. Average protection has fallen while openness has increased. However, economic growth has been insufficient to make inroads into the ...
  • A computable general equilibrium micro-simulation analysis of the impact of trade policies on poverty in Zimbabwe 
    Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret; Mabugu, Ramos; Kandiero, Tonia (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-09)
    The paper uses a micro-simulation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to study the impact on poverty of a complete removal of tariffs in Zimbabwe. The model incorporates 14006 households derived from the 1995 ...
  • Is increased agricultural protection beneficial for South Africa? 
    Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret; Mabugu, Ramos (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-09)
    This paper focuses on the effects that a higher tariff on agriculture and food imports could have on poverty and the macroeconomy using a top down computable general equilibrium microsimulation model. This question is ...
  • Growth theory and application : the case of South Africa 
    Lui, Guangling (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-09)
    This essay is a comparison study of traditional Neoclassical growth theory and new growth theory. It also discusses growth theory in the real world by investigating the so called “growth miracles” and “growth disasters” ...
  • Linking global economic dynamics to a South African specific credit portfolio 
    Van Eyden, Renee; De Wet, Albertus Hendrik (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-09)
    Driven by intense competition for market share banks across the globe have increasingly allowed credit portfolios to become less diversified (across all dimensions - country, industry, sector and size) and were willing to ...
  • A causality analysis between financial development and economic growth for Botswana 
    Eita, Joel Hinaunye; Jordaan, Andre Cillie (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-10)
    This paper analyses the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Botswana for the period 1977 to 2006, using Granger causality through cointegrated Vector Autoregression methods. The results ...
  • Testing the export-led growth hypothesis for Botswana : a causality analysis 
    Eita, Joel Hinaunye; Jordaan, Andre Cillie (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-10)
    This paper investigates the causal relationship between export and economic growth for Botswana, using quarterly data for the period 1995.1-2005.4. It uses two measures of economic growth namely, GDP and GDP excluding ...
  • Determinants of South Africa's exports for leather products 
    Eita, Joel Hinaunye; Jordaan, Andre Cillie (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-10)
    This paper analysed the determinants of South African exports of raw hides and skins (other than fur skins) and leather (H41) using annual data covering the period 1997 to 2004 for 32 main trading partners. The results ...
  • South Africa’s wood export potential using a gravity model 
    Eita, Joel Hinaunye; Jordaan, Andre Cillie (University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, 2007-10)
    Under the Accelerated Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (ASGISA), the South African government identified priority sectors that need to be promoted and developed in order to accelerate growth and reduce unemployment ...