Dynamical seasonal prediction of southern African summer precipitation

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dc.contributor.author Yuan, Chaoxia
dc.contributor.author Tozuka, Tomoki
dc.contributor.author Landman, W.A. (Willem Adolf), 1964-
dc.contributor.author Yamagata, Toshio
dc.date.accessioned 2014-07-21T09:58:30Z
dc.date.available 2014-07-21T09:58:30Z
dc.date.issued 2014-06
dc.description.abstract Prediction skill for southern African (16 – 33 E, 22 –35 S) summer precipitation in the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier coupled model is assessed for the period of 1982–2008. Using three different observation datasets, deterministic forecasts are evaluated by anomaly correlation coefficients, whereas scores of relative operating characteristic and relative operating level are used to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. We have found that these scores for December–February precipitation forecasts initialized on October 1st are significant at 95 % confidence level. On a local scale, the level of prediction skill in the northwestern and central parts of southern Africa is higher than that in northeastern South Africa. El Nin˜o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides the major source of predictability, but the relationship with ENSO is too strong in the model. The Benguela Nin˜o, the basin mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, the subtropical dipole modes in the South Atlantic and the southern Indian Oceans and ENSO Modoki may provide additional sources of predictability. Within the wet season from October to the following April, the precipitation anomalies in December-February are the most predictable. This study presents promising results for seasonal prediction of precipitation anomaly in the extratropics, where seasonal prediction has been considered a difficult task. en_US
dc.description.librarian hb2014 en_US
dc.description.sponsorship Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) through Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS). en_US
dc.description.uri http://link.springer.com/journal/382 en_US
dc.identifier.citation Yuan, CX, Tozuka, T, Landman, WA & Yamagata, T 2014, 'Dynamical seasonal prediction of southern African summer precipitation', Climate Dynamics, vol. 42, no. 11-12, pp. 3357-3374. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0930-7575 (print)
dc.identifier.issn 1432-0894 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1007/s00382-013-1923-5
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/40906
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Springer en_US
dc.rights © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013.The original publication is available at : http://link.springer.com/journal/382. en_US
dc.subject Seasonal prediction en_US
dc.subject Southern African en_US
dc.subject Summer precipitation en_US
dc.subject Coupled general en_US
dc.subject Circulation model en_US
dc.subject Relative operating characteristic en_US
dc.subject Relative operating level en_US
dc.subject Reliability diagram en_US
dc.subject El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) en_US
dc.title Dynamical seasonal prediction of southern African summer precipitation en_US
dc.type Postprint Article en_US


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