Abstract:
The article identifies South Africa’s strategic citrus markets among its major export partners
using three complementary methodologies. Firstly, South Africa’s major markets for citrus
are characterised according to a growth-share matrix to identify strategic country markets.
Secondly, the paper uses an Indicative Trade Potential analysis to identify strategic markets that
are high potential export countries. Thirdly, a gravity model is used to identify which strategic
high potential markets are encouraging South African citrus exports. Out of South Africa’s 51
major citrus export destinations, 44 countries are considered “strategic” markets. From these
44 strategic markets, 26 are high potential markets. Among the 26 high potential markets,
an identified 17 countries represent the most attractive markets that possess opportunities
for greater export expansion. These 17 countries can be prioritised for an export promotion
strategy: six are in the EU, four are in Asia, and two are in Eastern Europe; while three are
from Middle East and two from North America. The paper concludes that more aggressive
trade policy efforts should also be directed towards nine countries which are “high potential
markets”, but exhibit trade-inhibiting features discouraging South Africa’s citrus exports. Trade
facilitation efforts and bilateral agreements with such countries could be considered as an
option to “lock in” the benefits of unexploited export potential in key strategic citrus export
markets.
