Projected changes in tropical cyclone climatology and landfall in the southwest Indian Ocean region under enhanced anthropogenic forcing

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dc.contributor.author Malherbe, Johan B.
dc.contributor.author Engelbrecht, F.A. (Francois Alwyn)
dc.contributor.author Landman, W.A. (Willem Adolf), 1964-
dc.date.accessioned 2014-03-26T13:49:46Z
dc.date.available 2014-03-26T13:49:46Z
dc.date.issued 2013-06
dc.description.abstract The conformal-cubic atmospheric model, a variable-resolution global model, is applied at high spatial resolution to perform simulations of present-day and future climate over southern Africa and over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The model is forced with the bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice of six coupled global climate models that contributed to Assessment Report 4 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. All six simulations are for the period 1961–2100, under the A2 emission scenario. Projections for the latter part of the 21st century indicate a decrease in the occurrence of tropical cyclones over the Southwest Indian Ocean adjacent to southern Africa, as well as a northward shift in the preferred landfall position of these systems over the southern African subcontinent. A concurrent increase in January to March rainfall is projected for northern Mozambique and southern Tanzania, with decreases projected further south over semi-arid areas such as the Limpopo River Basin where these systems make an important contribution as main cause of widespread heavy rainfall. It is shown that the projected changes in tropical cyclone attributes and regional rainfall occur in relation to changes in larger scale atmospheric temperature, pressure and wind profiles of the southern African region and adjacent oceans. en_US
dc.description.librarian hb2013 en_US
dc.description.sponsorship The Water Research Commission (WRC Project No. K5/1847) in South Africa, as well as the Agricultural Research Council and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa. en_US
dc.description.uri http://link.springer.com/journal/382 en_US
dc.identifier.citation Malherbe, J, Engelbrecht, FA, Landman, WA 2013, 'Projected changes in tropical cyclone climatology and landfall in the southwest Indian Ocean region under enhanced anthropogenic forcing', Climate Dynamics, vol. 40, no. 11-12, pp. 2867-2886. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0930-7575 (print)
dc.identifier.issn 1432-0894 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1007/s00382-012-1635-2
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/37159
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Springer en_US
dc.rights © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012. The original publication is available at http://link.springer.com/journal/382 en_US
dc.subject Tropical cyclone en_US
dc.subject Indian Ocean en_US
dc.subject Southern Africa en_US
dc.subject Climate change en_US
dc.subject Landfall en_US
dc.subject Atmospheric model en_US
dc.title Projected changes in tropical cyclone climatology and landfall in the southwest Indian Ocean region under enhanced anthropogenic forcing en_US
dc.type Postprint Article en_US


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