Ultra high-resolution climate simulations over the Stellenbosch wine producing region using a variable-resolution model

Abstract

The study aims to generate a simulated, ultra high-resolution climatology over the southwestern Cape of South Africa, and in particular the Stellenbosch wine producing region, by the dynamical downscaling of observed synoptic-scale circulation. A variable-resolution global model, the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), and a multiple-nudging strategy are applied in order to reach this goal. CCAM is employed in stretched-grid mode as a regional climate model (RCM) to simulate climate for the period 1976-2005 at four different spatial resolutions. Nudging from coarse-resoltion (2.5° in latitude and longitude), the model was first applied at a 60 km resolution over southern Africa in order to obtain a simulation of the synoptic-scale circulation over the region. Two higher resolution simulations, at 8 km and 1 km resolution, were obtained consecutively over the western and southwestern Cape, nudging from the 60 km and 8 km simulations, respectively. Finally, a 200 m simulation was performed over the Stellenbosch region. Because of the high computational requirements of high-resolution runs, each progressively higher resolution simulation is performed over a progressively smaller area of interest over which the spatial resolution is high. The simulations verify well against observed datasets, and generally capture the important climatic features over the area of interest. The 60 km CCAM simulation gives a good representation of the synoptic scale weather over southern Africa, with realistic seasonal circulation patterns and rainfall percentages as well as intra-annual rainfall totals over various regions. The mesoscale climate over the Western Cape of South Africa is captured by the 8 km simulation, especially with respect to seasonal variations in temperature and rainfall percentages - although the actual rainfall over the southwestern tip of the Western Cape is severely underestimated. The ultra high-resolution simulated diurnal cycle of temperature, relative humidity and screen level wind speed compared well against observations for the month of February. The CCAM climate simulations might not be accurate enough for some of the very sensitive studies of the wine industry, but it can have great value for the demarcation of areas which are climatically suited for viticulture and some more general viticultural studies. Ultra high-resolution climate parameter maps are presented for 1976-2005.