A Political-security risk analysis of Uganda

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyse political-security risk in Uganda. It emanates from the research question: Does Uganda pose a political-security risk to prospective foreign investment or involvement? The need to move beyond a political risk analysis without entering into a country risk analysis, poses the research problem to develop a political-security risk analysis framework and to apply it to Uganda. This problem generates three subsidiary questions: How appropriate (or inappropriate) are existing risk analysis frameworks? Do existing frameworks contain generic elements that can provide a basis for a synthesised framework? To what extent is a country specific framework applicable to other countries? Therefore, three sub-problems are addressed, namely to determine the appropriateness of selected frameworks; to identify generic elements to construct a synthesised framework; and to assess the applicability of this framework for the analysis of political-security risk in other African countries. Following a definition of the concepts risk, country risk, political risk and political-security risk (analysis), selected frameworks for risk analysis were analysed. The generic elements of these frameworks, namely The Economist (EIU), Business Environment Risk Intelligence (BERI), International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) and Political Risk Services (PRS) frameworks, were reduced to three categories and synthesised into a single framework which was applied to Uganda. The categories of risk indicators pertained to security, political and socio-economic risks respectively. These indicators and the allocated risk scores were used to construct a political-security risk index in respect of which the summed scores provided an index figure of risk that was interpreted in accordance with an interpretation scale. In respect of Uganda, its more recent political history was described and the political, security and socio-economic circumstances prevailing in the country analysed. These conditions were assessed and measured against the indicated risk factors and according to the risk index. The summed political-security risk index score for Uganda was 55.5 out of a maximum of 100. In accordance with the interpretation scale, this constitutes an intermediate risk. Based on this Uganda is not, at present, the most suitable destination for foreign investment or involvement. This does not disallow investment or involvement but if indeed the case, it should be done with circumspection. The situation is volatile to the extent that it can rapidly change for the better or the worse, depending on trends concerning the risk categories, or more specifically a turn of events in respect of a particular key risk indicator. Since the synthesised risk analysis framework is able to accommodate key variables pertaining to politics and security in African states, and since it has provided an indication of risk in respect of Uganda, it is suggested for application to other African states. The need for modification, based on the particularities of other countries, is not excluded. It is also proposed that similar exercises be conducted at intervals of six months. This will indicate whether the variables used were, in fact, valid and reliable, and whether additional variables should be included. The repetition of the analysis also indicates risk trends and allows for the monitoring of risks, which will be conducive to risk management.