Assessing a quantitative approach to tactical asset allocation

Abstract

Against a backdrop of controversy surrounding market timing, this research assesses the merits of a tactical asset allocation strategy for the South African market. The purpose of this research is to assess whether a simple quantitative method - initially presented by Faber (2007) - can successfully reduce volatility and increase returns of selected indices within the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The All Share (ALSI), Financial&Industrial (FINI), Resource (RESI), Africa Gold Mining (AGMI), Government Bond (GOVI) and Property Unit Trust (PUTI) indices were examined. A strategy based on a ten-month simple moving average was compared against a buy-and-hold strategy, with results presented for these strategies both excluding and including transaction costs. The strategies were tested over a 50-year period from 1961 to 2010. The results show that superior risk-adjusted returns are possible even in the presence of high transaction costs. Further insights suggest that tactical asset allocation strategies yield improved performances when used in specific sectors and/or asset classes, instead of in consolidated sectors represented by the market.Copyright