Browsing Research Articles (Economics) by Author "Tavlas, George S."

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Browsing Research Articles (Economics) by Author "Tavlas, George S."

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  • Advances in forecasting : an introduction in light of the debate on inflation forecasting 
    Banerjee, Anindya; Hall, Stephen George; Kouretas, Georgios P.; Tavlas, George S. (Wiley, 2023-04)
    The sharp rise in inflation during the past few years has engendered comparisons with the great inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. Like that earlier episode, the recent inflation has been underpinned by supply-side ...
  • Drivers and spillover effects of inflation : the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom 
    Hall, Stephen George; Tavlas, George S.; Wang, Yongli (Elsevier, 2023-03)
    We investigate the drivers of the recent inflation in three currency areas: the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom. To do so, we use a VAR set-up to examine the nature of the shocks that underpinned the ...
  • The effect of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) on bank lending during the euro area crisis 
    Gibson, Heather D.; Hall, Stephen George; Petroulas, Pavlos; Spiliotopoulos, Vassilis; Tavlas, George S. (Elsevier, 2020-11)
    We examine the impact of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) on bank lending in eleven euro area countries during the financial crisis. With the intensification of the crisis, ELA took on a pivotal role in some countries. ...
  • Forecasting inflation : the use of dynamic factor analysis and nonlinear combinations 
    Hall, Stephen George; Tavlas, George S.; Wang, Yongli (Wiley, 2023)
    This paper considers the problem of forecasting inflation in the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom in the presence of possible structural breaks and changing parameters. We examine a range of moving ...
  • An investigation into feedback and spatial relationships between banks? Share prices and sovereign bond spreads during the euro crisis 
    Gibson, Heather D.; Hall, Stephen George; Petroulas, Pavlos; Tavlas, George S. (Elsevier, 2022-12)
    We examine (1) spillover effects between euro-area sovereigns and banking systems within national jurisdictions and (2) cross-country spillovers among ten countries during the euro-area crisis. We find that cross-country ...
  • Milton Friedman, the demand for money, and the ECB’s monetary policy strategy 
    Hall, Stephen George; Swamy, P.A.V.B.; Tavlas, George S. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2012-05)
    The European Central Bank (ECB) assigns greater weight to the role of money in its monetary policy strategy than most, if not all, other major central banks. Nevertheless, reflecting the view that the demand for money ...
  • A note on generalizing the concept of cointegration 
    Hall, Stephen George; Swamy, P.A.V.B.; Tavlas, George S. (Cambridge University Press, 2015-10)
    Building on the time-varying-coefficient (TVC) model, we propose a generalization of the concept of cointegration, allowing for the possibility that a set of variables measured with error entails a nonlinear relationship ...
  • On the effects of the ECB’s funding policies on bank lending 
    Gibson, Heather D.; Hall, Stephen George; Petroulas, Pavlos; Tavlas, George S. (Elsevier, 2020-04)
    The euro-area financial crisis that erupted in 2009 was marked by negative confidence effects that had significant ramifications for euro area banking systems. As a result, bank lending declined sharply. We investigate the ...
  • Quantifying spillovers among regions 
    Gefang, Deborah; Hall, Stephen George; Tavlas, George S.; Wang, Yongli (Elsevier, 2024-02)
    The standard procedure for quantifying spillover effects of changes in economic fundamentals among separate regions (or countries) is to link the regions through predetermined weights – for example through fixed weighted ...
  • A suggestion for a dynamic multi factor model (DMFM) 
    Gibson, Heather D.; Hall, Stephen George; Tavlas, George S. (Cambridge University Press, 2022-09)
    We provide a new way of deriving a number of dynamic unobserved factors from a set of variables. We show how standard principal components may be expressed in state space form and estimated using the Kalman filter. To ...