Browsing Research Articles (Economics) by Title

Browsing Research Articles (Economics) by Title

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  • U.S. state-level carbon dioxide emissions : does it affect health care expenditure? 
    Apergis, Nicholas; Gupta, Rangan; Lau, Chi Keung Marco; Mukherjee, Zinnia (Elsevier, 2018-08)
    This paper is the first to provide an empirical analysis of the short run and long run effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on health care spending across U.S. states. Accounting for the possibility of non-linearity ...
  • UK macroeconomic volatility : historical evidence over seven centuries 
    Plakandaras, Vasilios; Gupta, Rangan; Wohar, Mark E. (Elsevier, 2018-07)
    Breaking ground from all previous studies, we estimate a time-varying Vector Autoregression model that examines the time-period 1270–2016 — the entire economic history of the U.K. Focusing on permanent and transitory shocks ...
  • Uncertainty and crude oil returns 
    Aloui, Riadh; Gupta, Rangan; Miller, Stephen M. (Elsevier, 2016-03)
    We use a copula approach to investigate the effect of uncertainty on crude-oil returns. Using copulas to construct multivariate distributions of time-series data permit the calculation of the dependence structure between ...
  • Uncertainty and daily predictability of housing returns and volatility of the United States : evidence from a higher-order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test 
    Bouri, Elie; Gupta, Rangan; Kyei, Clement Kweku; Shivambu, Rinsuna (Elsevier, 2021-11)
    We analyse the ability of a newspaper-based metric of uncertainty of the United States in predicting housing market movements using daily data over the period 2nd August, 2007 to 24th June, 2020. For our purpose, we use a ...
  • Uncertainty and forecasts of U.S. recessions 
    Pierdzioch, Christian; Gupta, Rangan (De Gruyter, 2020-09)
    We estimate Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) on a sample of monthly data that extends back to 1889 to recover the predictive value of disaggregated news-based uncertainty indexes for U.S recessions. We control for widely-studied ...
  • Uncertainty and realized jumps in the pound-dollar exchange rate : evidence from over one century of data 
    Gkillas, Konstantinos; Gupta, Rangan; Vortelinos, Dimitrios I. (De Gruyter, 2023-03)
    We study the importance of economic uncertainty so as to predict realized jumps (hereafter jumps) in the pound-dollar exchange rate. The empirical analysis covers the time period from February 1900 to May 2018 on amonthly ...
  • Uncertainty and tourism in Africa 
    Chisadza, Carolyn; Clance, M.W. (Matthew); Gupta, Rangan; Wanke, Peter (Sage, 2022-06)
    Tourism growth is on the rise in Africa, and yet limited empirical evidence exists that explores the factors that drive this important contributor of economic growth on the continent. Previous literature focuses mainly on ...
  • Uncertainty related to infectious diseases and forecastability of the realised volatility of US Treasury securities 
    Shiba, Sisa; Gupta, Rangan (World Scientific Publishing, 2021-07)
    This paper aims to examine the predictive power of the daily newspaper-based index uncertainty related to infectious diseases (EMVID) for the US Treasury securities’ realized volatility (RV) using the heterogonous ...
  • Unemployment fluctuations and currency returns in the United Kingdom : evidence from over one and a half century of data 
    Bathia, Deven; Demirer, Riza; Gupta, Rangan; Kotze, Kevin (Elsevier, 2021-09)
    This paper provides a long-term perspective on the causal linkages between currency dynamics and macroeconomic conditions. We utilise a long-span data set for the United Kingdom that extends back to 1856, and a time-varying ...
  • Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession : exploring the metropolitan evidence 
    Canarella, Giorgio; Gupta, Rangan; Miller, Stephen M.; Pollard, Stephen K. (Springer, 2019-01)
    Standard unit-root tests of the hysteresis hypothesis specify a unit root under the null against the stationary alternative of the natural-rate hypothesis, making the two theories of unemployment mutually exclusive over ...
  • Unrealized arbitrage opportunities in naive equilibria with non-Bayesian belief processes 
    Zimper, Alexander (Elsevier, 2023-09)
    A non-Bayesian decision maker forms posterior beliefs through an – ever so slightly – violation of Bayes’ rule. A naive equilibrium is a competitive equilibrium for a multiperiod complete markets economy such that every ...
  • US fiscal policy and asset prices : the role of partisan conflict 
    Gupta, Rangan; Lau, Chi Keung Marco; Miller, Stephen M.; Wohar, Mark E. (Wiley, 2019-12)
    Fiscal policy shocks exert wide‐reaching effects, including movements in asset markets. US politics have been characterized historically by a high degree of partisan conflict. The combination of increasing polarization and ...
  • US inflation dynamics on long range data 
    Plakandaras, Vasilios; Gogas, Periklis; Gupta, Rangan; Papadimitriou, Theophilos (Routledge, 2015-08)
    In this paper we evaluate inflation persistence in the U.S. using long range monthly and annual data. The importance of inflation persistence is crucial to policy authorities and market participants, since the level of ...
  • US monetary policy and BRICS stock market bubbles 
    Gupta, Rangan; Nel, Jacobus; Nielsen, Joshua (Elsevier, 2023-01)
    We use the multi-scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator approach to detect both positive and negative bubbles at short-, medium- and long-run for the stock markets of the BRICS countries. ...
  • The US real GNP is trend-stationary after all 
    Omay, Tolga; Gupta, Rangan; Bonaccolto, Giovanni (Routledge, 2017)
    This article applies the Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form (FFFFF) Dickey–Fuller (DF)-type unit root test on the natural logarithm of US real GNP over the quarterly period of 1875:1–2015:2, to determine whether ...
  • The US term structure and return volatility in global REIT markets 
    Demirer, Riza; Gupta, Rangan; Yuksel, Asli; Yuksel, Aydin (Asia University, Taiwan, 2020-09)
    This paper examines the information content of the U.S. term structure of interest rates on the market for real estate investment trusts (REITs) by decomposing the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields into two components ...
  • The use of a Marshallian macroeconomic model for policy evaluation : case of South Africa 
    Ngoie, Jacques Kibambe; Zellner, Arnold (Cambridge University Press, 2012-03-23)
    Using a disaggregated Marshallian macroeconomic model, this paper investigates how the adoption of a set of “free market reforms” may affect the economic growth rate of South Africa. Our findings suggest that the institution ...
  • User fee abolition and the demand for public health care 
    Koch, Steven F. (Wiley, 2017-06)
    This research examines the effect of the abolition of user fees in South Africa, a policy implemented in 1994 for uninsured children under the age of six and the elderly uninsured, as well as pregnant and nursing mothers. ...
  • Using large data sets to forecast house prices : a case study of twenty U.S. states 
    Gupta, Rangan; Kabundi, Alain; Miller, Stephen M. (American Real Estate Society, 2011)
    Several Bayesian and classical models are used to forecast house prices in 20 states in the United States. There are two approaches: extracting common factors (principle components) in a factor-augmented vector autoregressive ...
  • Using large data sets to forecast sectoral employment 
    Gupta, Rangan; Kabundi, Alain; Miller, Stephen M.; Uwilingiye, Josine (Springer, 2014-06)
    We use several models using classical and Bayesian methods to forecast employment for eight sectors of the US economy. In addition to using standard vectorautoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, we also ...