Browsing Research Articles (Economics) by Title

Browsing Research Articles (Economics) by Title

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  • Unrealized arbitrage opportunities in naive equilibria with non-Bayesian belief processes 
    Zimper, Alexander (Elsevier, 2023-09)
    A non-Bayesian decision maker forms posterior beliefs through an – ever so slightly – violation of Bayes’ rule. A naive equilibrium is a competitive equilibrium for a multiperiod complete markets economy such that every ...
  • US fiscal policy and asset prices : the role of partisan conflict 
    Gupta, Rangan; Lau, Chi Keung Marco; Miller, Stephen M.; Wohar, Mark E. (Wiley, 2019-12)
    Fiscal policy shocks exert wide‐reaching effects, including movements in asset markets. US politics have been characterized historically by a high degree of partisan conflict. The combination of increasing polarization and ...
  • US inflation dynamics on long range data 
    Plakandaras, Vasilios; Gogas, Periklis; Gupta, Rangan; Papadimitriou, Theophilos (Routledge, 2015-08)
    In this paper we evaluate inflation persistence in the U.S. using long range monthly and annual data. The importance of inflation persistence is crucial to policy authorities and market participants, since the level of ...
  • US monetary policy and BRICS stock market bubbles 
    Gupta, Rangan; Nel, Jacobus; Nielsen, Joshua (Elsevier, 2023-01)
    We use the multi-scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator approach to detect both positive and negative bubbles at short-, medium- and long-run for the stock markets of the BRICS countries. ...
  • The US real GNP is trend-stationary after all 
    Omay, Tolga; Gupta, Rangan; Bonaccolto, Giovanni (Routledge, 2017)
    This article applies the Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form (FFFFF) Dickey–Fuller (DF)-type unit root test on the natural logarithm of US real GNP over the quarterly period of 1875:1–2015:2, to determine whether ...
  • The US term structure and return volatility in global REIT markets 
    Demirer, Riza; Gupta, Rangan; Yuksel, Asli; Yuksel, Aydin (Asia University, Taiwan, 2020-09)
    This paper examines the information content of the U.S. term structure of interest rates on the market for real estate investment trusts (REITs) by decomposing the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields into two components ...
  • The use of a Marshallian macroeconomic model for policy evaluation : case of South Africa 
    Ngoie, Jacques Kibambe; Zellner, Arnold (Cambridge University Press, 2012-03-23)
    Using a disaggregated Marshallian macroeconomic model, this paper investigates how the adoption of a set of “free market reforms” may affect the economic growth rate of South Africa. Our findings suggest that the institution ...
  • User fee abolition and the demand for public health care 
    Koch, Steven F. (Wiley, 2017-06)
    This research examines the effect of the abolition of user fees in South Africa, a policy implemented in 1994 for uninsured children under the age of six and the elderly uninsured, as well as pregnant and nursing mothers. ...
  • Using large data sets to forecast house prices : a case study of twenty U.S. states 
    Gupta, Rangan; Kabundi, Alain; Miller, Stephen M. (American Real Estate Society, 2011)
    Several Bayesian and classical models are used to forecast house prices in 20 states in the United States. There are two approaches: extracting common factors (principle components) in a factor-augmented vector autoregressive ...
  • Using large data sets to forecast sectoral employment 
    Gupta, Rangan; Kabundi, Alain; Miller, Stephen M.; Uwilingiye, Josine (Springer, 2014-06)
    We use several models using classical and Bayesian methods to forecast employment for eight sectors of the US economy. In addition to using standard vectorautoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, we also ...
  • Utilisation of focused antenatal care in Zambia : examining individual- and community-level factors using a multilevel analysis 
    Chama-Chiliba, Chitalu Miriam; Koch, Steven F. (Oxford University Press, 2015-02)
    OBJECTIVES : We examine the individual- and community-level factors associated with the utilization of antenatal care, following the adoption of the focused antenatal care (FANC) approach in Zambia. METHODS : Using ...
  • Valuation ratios and stock price predictability in South Africa : is it there? 
    Gupta, Rangan; Modise, Mampho P. (M.E. Sharpe, 2012-01)
    Using monthly South African data for 1990:01-2009:10, this paper, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to examine the predictability of real stock prices based on valuation ratios, namely, price-dividend and ...
  • Value-added tax effort 
    Van Oordt, Marius Louis (University of New South Wales, 2018-10)
    The success of the value-added tax (VAT) towards revenue objectives is limited by the environment within which the VAT operates. Controlling for these environments allows for comparative estimates of countries’ VAT efforts. ...
  • Variable parameter estimation of consumer price expectations for the South African economy 
    Koekemoer, Reneé (Blackwell, 2001-03)
    Individuals frequently form expectation about the future level of prices e.g. when making consumption expenditure decisions and during wage bargaining. Expectations are formed conditional on economic agents' perceptions ...
  • VAT and agriculture : lessons from Europe 
    Cnossen, Sijbren (Springer, 2018-04)
    Little has been written about the treatment of agriculture under the value added tax (VAT). This article attempts to fill the void by surveying and evaluating the situation in the Member States of the European Union (EU) ...
  • Vergoedingsneigings in die openbare sektor te midde van volgehoue inflasie – ’n ekonomiese perspektief 
    Padayachee, Vishnu; Rossouw, Jannie (Suid Afrikaanse Akademie vir Wetenskap & Kuns, 2010-06)
    This paper compares the movement in the nominal and real remuneration of two selected positions in the South African public sector over the period 1984 to 2008. Over this period a divergent trend is discernible in the ...
  • Vicious and virtuous circles : the political economy of unemployment 
    Minford, Patrick; Naraidoo, Ruthira (Wiley-Blackwell, 2010-03)
    We develop an empirical non-linear model of equilibrium unemployment and test its policy implications for a number of OECD countries. The model here sees the natural rate and the associated equilibrium path of unemployment ...
  • Vicious and virtuous circles : the political economy of unemployment in interwar UK and USA 
    Matthews, Kent; Minford, Patrick; Naraidoo, Ruthira (Elsevier, 2008-09)
    This paper develops a political economy model of multiple unemployment equilibria to provide a theory of an endogenous natural rate of unemployment for the UK and the US interwar period. The theory here sees the natural ...
  • Volatility forecasting with bivariate multifractal models 
    Liu, Ruipeng; Demirer, Riza; Gupta, Rangan; Wohar, Mark E. (Wiley, 2020-03)
    This paper examines volatility linkages and forecasting for stock and foreign exchange markets from a novel perspective by utilizing a bivariate Markov‐switching multifractal model that accounts for possible interactions ...
  • Volatility jumps : the role of geopolitical risks 
    Gkillas, Konstantinos; Gupta, Rangan; Wohar, Mark E. (Elsevier, 2018-12)
    In this paper we analyse the role of a news-based index of geopolitical risks (GPRs), in predicting volatility jumps in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over the monthly period of 1899:01 to 2017:12, with the jumps ...