Abstract:
In “Ending Civil Wars: A Case for Rebel Victory?” Monica Duffy Toft questions
whether policymakers are correct to have a strong preference for terminating civil wars
through negotiated settlements. Her main endeavor is to undertake a statistical analysis
that compares the effect of negotiated settlements, military victories, and cease-fires/stalemates on war recurrence and on the state’s level of democracy and economic
growth. With respect to war recurrence, which is the focus of this letter, she finds that
negotiated settlements are largely ineffective, that civil wars ending in military victory
by one side are less likely to recur, and that rebel victories produce the most durable
settlements. Toft’s purpose is not only to understand these phenomena but
also to provide policymakers with guidance. She recommends that third parties
should pay greater attention to security-sector reform (SSR) during negotiations, leading
to settlements that can credibly guarantee both benefits from cooperation and harm
from defection; failing that, support in pursuit of victory, especially rebel victory, may
be a worthy objective for policymakers.
